2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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skyline385
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#421 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 23, 2024 2:21 pm

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#422 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Sun Jun 23, 2024 2:25 pm

skyline385 wrote:EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]


That big signal over Bermuda :eek:
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#423 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jun 23, 2024 3:07 pm

skyline385 wrote:EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]


Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#424 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 23, 2024 5:43 pm

skyline385 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PqRWG3s1/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360.png [/url]


Wow, that's a lot of pretty robust MDR-born systems :eek:

Again, under normal circumstances I probably would brush them off, especially this early in the calendar year, but then again, the conditions we seem to have for this season seem to be setting up to be very favorable, so who knows?
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#425 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jun 23, 2024 8:04 pm

skyline385 wrote:EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]



I like the one that seems to just blow up over the Carolinas. :lol:
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#426 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 24, 2024 1:05 am

0Z UKMET has a TS that forms on Thur 150 miles W of Bermuda moving NE: (2nd run in a row with something similar):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.9N 67.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2024 84 32.9N 67.1W 1008 40
0000UTC 28.06.2024 96 35.9N 64.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 28.06.2024 108 38.9N 60.7W 1002 38
0000UTC 29.06.2024 120 44.4N 55.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 29.06.2024 132 50.5N 49.5W 991 42
0000UTC 30.06.2024 144 POST-TROPICAL
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#427 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Jun 24, 2024 4:50 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET has a TS that forms on Thur 150 miles W of Bermuda moving NE: (2nd run in a row with something similar):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.9N 67.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2024 84 32.9N 67.1W 1008 40
0000UTC 28.06.2024 96 35.9N 64.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 28.06.2024 108 38.9N 60.7W 1002 38
0000UTC 29.06.2024 120 44.4N 55.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 29.06.2024 132 50.5N 49.5W 991 42
0000UTC 30.06.2024 144 POST-TROPICAL


No signal in the other models though. This would be an unusual time of year for Bermuda to see some action although when we do it does tend to be pinching off fronts rather than recurving MDR/Caribbean systems.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#428 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 24, 2024 7:21 am

The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#429 Postby LearnedHat » Mon Jun 24, 2024 8:52 am

NDG wrote:The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

https://i.imgur.com/gnLQdvL.png



Does this leave the Texas / Mexico border as a possibility or is that shielded as well.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#430 Postby zzzh » Mon Jun 24, 2024 1:59 pm

Image
12z euro.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#431 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 24, 2024 2:08 pm

LearnedHat wrote:
NDG wrote:The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

https://i.imgur.com/gnLQdvL.png



Does this leave the Texas / Mexico border as a possibility or is that shielded as well.


It depends, many other factors could come into play, strength of tropical system and at what latitude it would enter the GOM.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#432 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jun 24, 2024 3:11 pm

Wakey wakey, weenies!


Image
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#433 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 24, 2024 3:36 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Wakey wakey, weenies!


Image
With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#434 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Jun 24, 2024 3:37 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif
With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs



Isn't happy hour 18z, or did that change?
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#435 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 24, 2024 3:47 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif
With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs



Isn't happy hour 18z, or did that change?
Still the same time 18z.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#436 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 24, 2024 4:10 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif


Just bear in mind that the weathernerds EPS cyclone plot shows almost all members regardless of level of development and can sometimes be misleading. 12z EPS has a 10-20% chance of a TS which is reasonable but nothing insane like the weathernerds plot would suggest. And remember this is EPS 48r1 (released last year) which is much more aggressive than the old 47r3 EPS after its resolution was increased to 8-km (along with other updates). See below for what it famously had in June last year for Bret. All I am saying is keep expectations in check for early-July :D

Chances of current interest on 12z EPS:

Image

Bret 2023 on 48r1 EPS:

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#437 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jun 24, 2024 5:05 pm

Image

12z Euro…
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#438 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 24, 2024 5:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

12z Euro…
Well established escape route.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#439 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jun 24, 2024 6:03 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Well established escape route.

Image

12z EPS
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#440 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:28 am

0z GFS tries to develop two MDR waves, the first one is directly south of Cabo Verde at the start of the run. Here it is at hour 144:
Image

Second wave at hour 198 east of the islands:
Image
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