2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lsuhurricane]

12z EPS are alarming. Bell ringing to say the least.

[ROCK]

12z EPS are alarming. Bell ringing to say the least.

https://i.ibb.co/tbKctyY/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

That’s a lot of bells!!

[MetroMike]

12z GFS is showing another TS next Sunday coming up from the same area and moving into the E.Gulf.
Talk about overloading here!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is showing another TS next Sunday coming up from the same area and moving into the E.Gulf.
Talk about overloading here!

That is the wave with 10%-20%. Thread for that one.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124193

[weeniepatrol]

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/Xnejo9D.gif

Euro sure does like breaking the ridges in the long range, it was wrong with beryl and debby.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Another late-bloomer tropical wave towards the end of the Euro run there. Definitely have to keep an eye on it for potential land impacts.

[jlauderdal]

Another late-bloomer tropical wave towards the end of the Euro run there. Definitely have to keep an eye on it for potential land impacts.

Euro still has a break in the ridge, gfs not showing anything which isnt a surprise this far out and the way the modeling has been going this season. Feeder bands from debby still moving through. Hopefully that's the extent of the hurricane activity this season in our area

[TomballEd]

I think the only problem with the Euro ensembles on the current 10/30 lemon in the Caribbean is it had most of the members a smidge too far N. Too close to S. America to develop, the few members that do develop run into Central America.

A fair number of ECENS like the wave just coming off Africa. Looks good on MIMIC-TPW, but not many storms, with dry air ahead. Most would be OTS on day 10 ECENS, but lets see if it forms first GEFS has more than a few members seeing it also, but the MJO should be more favorable for the EATL wave than it was for the very unlikely to develop current lemon.

[weeniepatrol]

[Frank P]

18z EURO has some members sniffing possible development entering the Caribbean Sea around Monday the 12th

[Stratton23]

Frank P, Higher than 12z run, 12z had almost no support

[Teban54]

Frank P, Higher than 12z run, 12z had almost no support

Isn't this the same wave that 12z EPS was showing on recurve tracks? Just that 18z seems to be trending south.

[IcyTundra]

Frank P, Higher than 12z run, 12z had almost no support

Isn't this the same wave that 12z EPS was showing on recurve tracks? Just that 18z seems to be trending south.

I’m pretty sure you’re right. GEFS isn’t showing much with this wave but it didn’t forecast the development of Debby very well compared to the EPS.

[Frank P]

Frank P, Higher than 12z run, 12z had almost no support

Isn't this the same wave that 12z EPS was showing on recurve tracks? Just that 18z seems to be trending south.

I’m pretty sure you’re right. GEFS isn’t showing much with this wave but it didn’t forecast the development of Debby very well compared to the EPS.

00z EURO ensembles still ended up with a recurve but a few members now show possible westward tracks for the first time

[cycloneye]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/hdd9iju.gif

Looks like recent Euro ensembles are very enthusiastic about this system (willing to bet this will be our next NS).

I also hoenstly wouldn't be surprised with this kind of track given the pattern this year where literally every system that is forming ends up hitting land.

[mantis83]

https://i.imgur.com/hdd9iju.gif

looks like east coast troughing dives in just in time to recurve this safely away.....if it even forms

[BobHarlem]

You can spot it on the gfs and cmc also, but barely. Bermuda is the one to watch out for this based on the current models.