Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Kazmit]

GFS stronger and further east this run. More in line with the other models.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs back to reality on storm strength, results in an eastward shift in the mid range. Basically the same as the 6z through 162 hr

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS stronger and further east this run. More in line with the other models.

Yep, it's looking more and more like after it passes the islands that it will recurve out to sea. As they say, the model trend is your friend
But there are plenty of waves behind it, so I'm betting with one of those we won't be so lucky with a recurve.

[Stratton23]

Again it is just way to early, its definitely not set in stone that its going to be a safe recurve out to sea, very complex pattern shaping up, the 18 GFS reflects this as the trough actually starts to pivot the storm a little closer to the NE US, not a safe sea recurve by any stretch of the imagination

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs very close call with Massachusetts/Cape Cod then landfall in Nova Scotia

[wxman57]

I wouldn't put too much stock in where the GFS puts a storm that hasn't even developed yet at day 10-12. The day 12 position is varying by about 1000 miles each run. We're just going to have to see how quickly it develops.

[Stratton23]

Very massive and significant spread in the 18z GEFS, thats why we absolutely cannot say this is 100% a fish storm

[Stratton23]

Uptick in GEFS members that go into the gulf, completely miss the trough, still seems like a low chance, but definitely a a little bit higher of a chance

[Tekken_Guy]

Only one east coast strike on the GEFS 18z and it’s in Georgia. Gulf Coast though…oof.

Strong possibility the Gulf is more endangered than the eastern seaboard here.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States.

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Slow development of this system
is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over
the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Beven

[TomballEd]

I was challenged on this before- at this time the models look good for the East Coast, and while there are enough members of the ensembles that do affect land in the NE Caribbean, even there my eyeball mean of both major ensembles has future Ernesto miss to their north.

Someone asked why should it go OTS, I already posted the GEFS 500 mb height, and for now, it would seem there is little chance anything that developed before a little W 0f 60* is not going to be captured. An ensemble mean 6 days out has time to weaken the trough and strengthen the ridge, but 6 days isn't 10 or 15 days. The GEFS 'leakers' into the Gulf are weak and at the S limits of the members,

The being weak and slipping past the trough into the Gulf, I kind of doubt that is happening looking at the satellite. I think it develops before 60W. It is close enough in time that the critical step, being lifted out by the trough, seems more likely than not. I don't know, but I expect model stability, slight shifts of left or right in the models, and more or less TCs hitting land in the Caribbean (still a risk), but I'm semi-confident that after a possible landfall(s) in the Caribbean, Canada and Bermuda have the highest risk of seeing a substantial storm.

[Stratton23]

We will see, but one thing to note, the entire EPS had every member having debby recurve go out to sea and it completely dropped the ball on that , gulf is unlikely but definitely still in the realm of possibility, I do think a path straight out to sea is becoming less unlikely at this time, i have a landfall somewhere around NC, before eventually turning NE by the trough, passing dangerously close to the NE US

[cheezyWXguy]

I was challenged on this before- at this time the models look good for the East Coast, and while there are enough members of the ensembles that do affect land in the NE Caribbean, even there my eyeball mean of both major ensembles has future Ernesto miss to their north.

Someone asked why should it go OTS, I already posted the GEFS 500 mb height, and for now, it would seem there is little chance anything that developed before a little W 0f 60* is not going to be captured. An ensemble mean 6 days out has time to weaken the trough and strengthen the ridge, but 6 days isn't 10 or 15 days. The GEFS 'leakers' into the Gulf are weak and at the S limits of the members,

The being weak and slipping past the trough into the Gulf, I kind of doubt that is happening looking at the satellite. I think it develops before 60W. It is close enough in time that the critical step, being lifted out by the trough, seems more likely than not. I don't know, but I expect model stability, slight shifts of left or right in the models, and more or less TCs hitting land in the Caribbean (still a risk), but I'm semi-confident that after a possible landfall(s) in the Caribbean, Canada and Bermuda have the highest risk of seeing a substantial storm.
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I have to wonder what’s causing the slower development on some of the ensemble members and the 12z gfs, as opposed to the (more realistic imo) 18z gfs. I notice the weaker more southern members are faster in the shorter range, is the premise that they would catch up enough to that tutt feature and get sheared?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Don't particularly care what the GFS is saying at 10 days right now. Many models recurved Debby safely away from the USA.

Main focus should be the high risk of major impacts to Puerto Rico/Hispaniola/etc.

[Spacecoast]

.... it would seem there is little chance anything that developed before a little W 0f 60* is not going to be captured. ....

CMC, Euro, GFS, and NAV all forecast genesis at, or before 60W.
UK has genesis after 70W North of DR...



btw , so far this season....
ACE West of 60°W (73) = 32
ACE East of 60°W (73) = 7

[HurricaneEnzo]

It is a pretty large area of interest. Perhaps some of the models have it taking longer to consolidate and form. Just a guess

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[cycloneye]

Is INVEST 98L