2024 Cyclone Retirements

[CycloneSakura]

Just a slight update to my previous listing:
NATL- Beryl, Debby, Helene, Milton and Sara (possibly)
EPAC- John
WPAC: Gaemi, Yagi, Krathon, Usagi and Man-yi (I do think Krathon will be requested by China to go)

[Hurricane2022]

Just a slight update to my previous listing:
WPAC: Gaemi, Yagi, Krathon, Usagi and Man-yi (I do think Krathon will be requested by China to go)

Add Trami to the list. That storm killed almost 180 people in PH, and left many missing.

[Ulf]

Just a slight update to my previous listing:
EPAC- John

John getting retired is a toss up. Mexico has always been inconsistent when requesting hurricane name retirement for some reason. Gert (1993), Emily (2005), Alex (2010), and Karl (2010) would have been retired otherwise.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a slight update to my previous listing:
EPAC- John

John getting retired is a toss up. Mexico has always been inconsistent when requesting hurricane name retirement for some reason. Gert (1993), Emily (2005), Alex (2010), and Karl (2010) would have been retired otherwise.

Here is my breakdown of John's situation. The things you pointed out are indeed true, but here are some factors to consider as well.

John was the most significant storm from an otherwise rather noneventful Pacific hurricane season (in terms of overall activity). John also inflicted 1 billion dollars in damage and 29 deaths; also keep in mind that Mexico seems to be more lenient with retiring the names of EPAC storms that hit the country rather than Atlantic storms that hit the country. John's death toll and monetary damages, while much less than Otis, are also much greater than recent EPAC majors that hit the country (albeit in far less populated areas); notably Willa 2018, Roslyn 2022, and Lidia 2023. Those storms inflicted damages in the millions of dollars (not billions) and killed less than 10 people each. I don't think John's a slam dunk for retirement, but I do think it has a greater shot at getting retired than many other recent EPAC storms in mind.

[Torino]

Updating my list - and also my final thoughts:

ATL:
4 names - Beryl, Helene, Milton and Rafael

EPAC:
1 name - John

WPAC: it's too hard to predict anything here, so I'll just leave it like this...
Yagi, Trami and Man-yi for sure
Gaemi and Usagi probably
Krathon, Yinxing and Toraji maybe, who knows...
Shanshan probably not, but also who knows...
+Mawar from 2023, probably

SW Indian Ocean:
Everybody gets retired

[Ulf]

Currently leaning toward Debby being retired due to Canada. Not sure about Rafael since Cuba has not released data regarding the damages it caused from what I could find. Also Sara might get retired by Honduras' request if the total death and damages totals turn out to be worse.

Also leaning toward John being retired for EPAC.

For WPAC Gaemi, Yagi, Soulik, Krathon, Trami, and Man-yi. Almost no chance Shanshan gets axed by Japan after what happened with Jebi (2018).

[GSBHurricane]

I wonder if PAGASA will break its record for the most storms retired in a year?

[Sciencerocks]

Debby will be the costiest non-retired storm in Atlantic history if it isn't retired.
 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1865078441743110373

[Category5Kaiju]

Debby will be the costiest non-retired storm in Atlantic history if it isn't retired.
 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1865078441743110373

“Costliest in Canadian history”

Looks like Debby went from a “maybe it could be retired” to pretty much a guarantee (looks like it’s even beating Fiona in cost).

[GSBHurricane]

Debby will be the costiest non-retired storm in Atlantic history if it isn't retired.
 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1865078441743110373

“Costliest in Canadian history”

Looks like Debby went from a “maybe it could be retired” to pretty much a guarantee (looks like it’s even beating Fiona in cost).

I was able to download a copy of the report. It was published on August 12, 2024, just days after it dissipated, and hurricanes often are reported to be higher during this period than when the official costs are revealed by NOAA. Damage was also based on a flood simulation model at the time and didn't take into account much else. NOAA uploaded its figures for Debby in October and they reported only $2.5 billion in damage in the US. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events

[Teban54]

Debby will be the costiest non-retired storm in Atlantic history if it isn't retired.
 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1865078441743110373

“Costliest in Canadian history”

Looks like Debby went from a “maybe it could be retired” to pretty much a guarantee (looks like it’s even beating Fiona in cost).

I was able to download a copy of the report. It was published on August 12, 2024, just days after it dissipated, and hurricanes often are reported to be higher during this period than when the official costs are revealed by NOAA. Damage was also based on a flood simulation model at the time and didn't take into account much else. NOAA uploaded its figures for Debby in October and they reported only $2.5 billion in damage in the US. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events

I thought the tweet was talking about Debby's damage in Canada, not the US?

[GSBHurricane]

“Costliest in Canadian history”

Looks like Debby went from a “maybe it could be retired” to pretty much a guarantee (looks like it’s even beating Fiona in cost).

I was able to download a copy of the report. It was published on August 12, 2024, just days after it dissipated, and hurricanes often are reported to be higher during this period than when the official costs are revealed by NOAA. Damage was also based on a flood simulation model at the time and didn't take into account much else. NOAA uploaded its figures for Debby in October and they reported only $2.5 billion in damage in the US. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events

I thought the tweet was talking about Debby's damage in Canada, not the US?

I jumped to Wikipedia because I wasn’t sure where he got the $12.3 billion from. It only applies to the US. There wasn’t any tweet that mentioned Debby being the costliest in Canadian history. The tweet was just about the $12.3 billion that was believed to come from the US before it got knocked down to $2.5 billion. If you add in Canada, damage from Debby is reported to be around $4.3 billion.

[CrazyC83]

As far as retirement probabilities, I would say they are:

Helene - 100%

Milton - 95%

Beryl - 75%

Debby - 35%

Rafael - 25%

Francine, Oscar, Sara - 10%

All others - <5%

(It's based on the $4.3B estimate for Debby, which seems more realistic)

[Category5Kaiju]

As far as retirement probabilities, I would say they are:

Helene - 100%

Milton - 95%

Beryl - 75%

Debby - 35%

Rafael - 25%

Francine, Oscar, Sara - 10%

All others - <5%

(It's based on the $4.3B estimate for Debby, which seems more realistic)

Just out of curiosity, is there a reason why you are not assigning Milton and Beryl 100% chances of getting retired? As far as I understood, Milton was also very destructive for Florida and Beryl ended up as among the worst storms to hit Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines

[GSBHurricane]

As far as retirement probabilities, I would say they are:

Helene - 100%

Milton - 95%

Beryl - 75%

Debby - 35%

Rafael - 25%

Francine, Oscar, Sara - 10%

All others - <5%

(It's based on the $4.3B estimate for Debby, which seems more realistic)

I’d rate Debby’s chances as higher than 35% since $1.8 billion in damage was to Quebec alone.

[Category5Kaiju]

With the horrific situation unfolding in Mayotte in the SWIO due to Cyclone Chido, I was going to say that Chido would be retired.

Then I just learned that the SWIO automatically retires used names, no matter how destructive or insignificant they are.

[Ulf]

Then I just learned that the SWIO automatically retires used names, no matter how destructive or insignificant they are.

I am also wondering about this. Do they come up with a new list of names when the existing ones get all used up?

[Hurricanehink]

Then I just learned that the SWIO automatically retires used names, no matter how destructive or insignificant they are.

I am also wondering about this. Do they come up with a new list of names when the existing ones get all used up?

They automatically retire any names that were used, keeping any unused names for a future season.

[CycloneSakura]

I wonder if PAGASA will break its record for the most storms retired in a year?

The record I think is 5, which belongs to 2011: Bebeng (Aere), Juaning (Nock-ten), Mina (Nanmadol), Pedring (Nesat) and Sendong (Washi). We have Aghon (Ewiniar), Enteng (Yagi), Gener (Soulik), Kristine (Trami), Marce (Yinxing), Nika (Toraji), Ofel (Usagi) and Pepito (Man-yi) on the chopping block, based on PAGASA retirement standards of 1 billion PHP or 300 deaths.

[CycloneSakura]

Then I just learned that the SWIO automatically retires used names, no matter how destructive or insignificant they are.

I am also wondering about this. Do they come up with a new list of names when the existing ones get all used up?

They have 3 lists of 26 names apiece, with the used ones immediately tossed and replaced