2024 TCRs

[ljmac75]

The TCR for tropical storm Chris was just released: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032024_Chris.pdf

[galaxy401]

Brief intensity uptick for Chris: 45 mph. So it's not as much of a name-waster.

[Hurricane2022]

Aletta is out
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012024_Aletta.pdf

[HurricaneBelle]

Things are going so slowly that the report for Alberto is out

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012024_Alberto.pdf

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022024_Bud.pdf

Bud in the EPAC (cute name).

[ljmac75]

Gilma: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072024_Gilma.pdf
Emilia: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052024_Emilia.pdf

[aspen]

Gilma: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072024_Gilma.pdf
Emilia: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052024_Emilia.pdf

Wow, not a single upgrade to any of Gilma’s under-estimated peaks. Very disappointing. Hate to say it, but they did a terrible job with this system.

[cycloneye]

I guess a few reports will be out in the next few weeks as things will be quiet for the nhc folks to work on them. Waiting for the Beryl one.

[Category5Kaiju]

Let’s be real; the ones everybody will be waiting for are Beryl, Helene, Kirk, Milton, and Oscar

[WaveBreaking]

Let’s be real; the ones everybody will be waiting for are Beryl, Helene, Kirk, Milton, and Oscar

Add Leslie to that list as well lol. I still believe it briefly got to Cat 3 during its second peak.

[ljmac75]

Carlotta (I forgot this one happened)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032024_Carlotta.pdf

[galaxy401]

Currently I can't access the reports of Carlotta, Emilia, and Gilma on the NHC page. The links to the reports still work here.

[cycloneye]

Now that the season is going to end, they will acelerate the release of them.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index ... &basin=atl

[cycloneye]

EPAC TS Hector is up with 50kt at peak.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082024_Hector.pdf

[Hurricanehink]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102024_Isaac.pdf

Isaac is out. Its transition to tropical storm status was moved up to late on September 25.

[Hurricane2022]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102024_Isaac.pdf

Isaac is out. Its transition to tropical storm status was moved up to late on September 25.

Good TCR

[Travorum]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102024_Isaac.pdf

Isaac is out. Its transition to tropical storm status was moved up to late on September 25.

Some reasonable and unsurprising changes here with genesis moved up 6 hours and intensity ramping up a little quicker via some 5kt bumps up here and there. It looks like they also moved the extratropical transition up 6 hours at the back end. Peak winds stay at 90kts, a good call given consensus estimates and the cooler waters Isaac was traversing, and minimum pressure is down 5mb to 963mb. The TCR adjustments change Isaac's total ACE from 7.83 to 7.91, and increase of 0.08.

All in all an impressive overperformance for a storm that was named operationally from a 40/40 AOI (it was 10/20 just one advisory prior when the TCR now has it forming) and who's first NHC forecast had a 60kt peak.

[CrazyC83]

I do remember some T5.5 readings from Isaac, I guess they were discarded. The 90 kt intensity seems right with the latter assumption, although if that was explicitly based on the T5.0 readings, that may be a bit generous due to the cooler water.

[cycloneye]

TS Joyce is up with peak of 45kt. None of the biggies are yet up and guess those will take a while.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112024_Joyce.pdf

[OtakuForecaster]

TS Joyce is up with peak of 45kt. None of the biggies are yet up and guess those will take a while.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112024_Joyce.pdf

In my experience, those are usually the last ones to come out, yeah. With an approximate publication date between late January and the middle of February (although it can sometimes span as late as April!).

I can't wait for Beryl and Milton. I think everyone will probably be wanting to see Helene's the most, and to each their own, but for me, the record-setting statistics of the former two storms makes me inherently more interested in their respective TCRs.