2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Pasmorade · #1 Postby **Pasmorade** » Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:12 am

kevin · #2 Postby **kevin** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 4:23 am

Based on the latest ENSO forecast (which is very uncertain this far out) it looks like La Nina chances are increasing again with JAS 2025 La Nina chances being similar or even slightly larger than El Nino. So, if I have to make any prediction, I'm gonna go with neutral or a weak La Nina with above average activity. I also think we'll see a more traditional season this year with the peak around September. If the SSTs remain high (which I expect them to) I do think the peak season will be expanded with more hurricanes forming in July and October/November (although I'm not predicting a Beryl repeat).

StormWeather · #3 Postby **StormWeather** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 6:25 pm

Honestly, I’m cautious at this point in time.

These active seasons have got to end at some point.

I do expect we will break the record for most consecutive seasons in a row to see a U.S. MH landfall.

WalterWhite · #4 Postby **WalterWhite** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 9:45 pm

StormWeather wrote:Honestly, I’m cautious at this point in time.

These active seasons have got to end at some point.

I do expect we will break the record for most consecutive seasons in a row to see a U.S. MH landfall.

Using the 1951-2020 climatology, I doubt we will have another below-average season within the next 10 years because the Atlantic will likely continue to be super warm (especially with stricter regulations on aerosol emissions due to shipping) and because the NHC can detect more storms nowadays than in the past, leading to higher storm counts and higher ACE. Not even a record El Niño can deliver a below-average season at this point.

kevin · #5 Postby **kevin** » Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:45 am

Not sure where to put this, so I'll place it here. I used the monthly SST anomaly (in Celsius) compared to 1991 - 2020 climatology for the North Atlantic and the Atlantic MDR. Below are all seasons since 1982 which have a positive anomaly during ASO for either the North Atlantic (NA) or the Atlantic MDR. The bolded years have both an above average MDR and North Atlantic. The colors of the seasons indicate activity (blue for below-average, green for average, orange for above average, red for hyperactive).

9 out of the 11 hyperactive seasons (since 1982) either had an above-average NA or MDR. 8 out of 11 hyperactive seasons since 1982 had both an above-average NA and MDR. Only 3 out of 14 below-average seasons (since 1982) either had an above-average NA or MDR. 2 out of 14 below-average seasons since 1982 had an above-average NA and MDR.

Based on the statistics since 1982:
*Solely using the combination of an above-average NA and MDR, there is a 42% chance of a hyperactive season, a 37% of an above-average season, an 11% chance of an average season and an 11% chance of a below-average season (1% rounding error).
*The general statistics for all seasons since 1982 has been 26% hyperactive, 26% above-average, 19% average, 30% below-average (1% rounding error).
*If you only look at seasons with at least a below-average NA or MDR the chances are, 13% hyperactive, 17% above-average, 25% average, 46% below-average (1% rounding error).
*If you only look at seasons with at a below-average NA and MDR the chances are, 10% hyperactive, 14% above-average, 29% average, 48% below-average (1% rounding error).

As such I'd say that the combination of an above-average NA and MDR is a strong indicator of an active season with the chance of an above-average season increasing by a factor ~2.6 compared to when at least one of these two basins is below-average. This factor increases to ~3.3 when you compare seasons with both an above-average NA & MDR to seasons with a below-average NA & MDR. Since 1982 having both an above-average MDR and NA has a 79% success rate in predicting at least an above-average season. This success rate is 77% if you use an above-average MDR or NA as the indicator.

In conclusion, this is mostly just be being a bit bored and going through some statistics. This is all retrospective analysis. But, if we assume that at a close time-range SST forecasts for ASO are accurate, then we can use this as an additional argument whether the upcoming season will be active. I mean, it's common sense that a warmer NA and MDR increase the chance of Atlantic cyclone activity, but now you also have the actual numbers to back this up for the dataset since 1982.

The latest CanSIPS shows average anomalies in the NA and MDR above at least roughly +1C for next year's ASO based on a quick look by eye. So if there is any accuracy in that we'll probably see another above-average season.

1995 / -0.19 NA / +0.05 MDR
1998 / +0.06 NA / +0.11 MDR
2003 / +0.24 NA / +0.19 MDR
2004 / +0.02 NA / +0.18 MDR
2005 / +0.23 NA / +0.46 MDR
2006 / +0.22 NA / +0.18 MDR
2008 / +0.15 NA / +0.26 MDR
2009 / -0.03 NA / +0.11 MDR
2010 / +0.34 NA / +0.56 MDR
2011 / +0.02 NA / +0.16 MDR
2012 / +0.33 NA / +0.25 MDR
2013 / +0.23 NA/ +0.24 MDR
2015 / +0.27 NA / +0.29 MDR
2016 / +0.27 NA / +0.37 MDR
2017 / +0.27 NA / +0.44 MDR
2018 / +0.07 NA / -0.19 MDR
2019 / +0.26 NA / +0.49 MDR
2020 / +0.43 NA / +0.46 MDR
2021 / +0.52 NA / +0.24 MDR
2022 / +0.61 NA / +0.31 MDR
2023 / +1.04 NA / +1.23 MDR
2024 / +0.88 NA / +1.09 MDR

#6 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:24 am

WalterWhite wrote:
StormWeather wrote:Honestly, I’m cautious at this point in time.

These active seasons have got to end at some point.

I do expect we will break the record for most consecutive seasons in a row to see a U.S. MH landfall.

Using the 1951-2020 climatology, I doubt we will have another below-average season within the next 10 years because the Atlantic will likely continue to be super warm (especially with stricter regulations on aerosol emissions due to shipping) and because the NHC can detect more storms nowadays than in the past, leading to higher storm counts and higher ACE. Not even a record El Niño can deliver a below-average season at this point.

This is very similar to the "US will never get hit by a major hurricane again" posts prior to Harvey. Be cautions about getting confident in short term trends, we just don't know at this point. I'm also doubting that finding more shorties leads to more than 1 ACE, if that. In my opinion.

Category5Kaiju · #7 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Tue Dec 03, 2024 11:51 am

Just putting this out here, but this is what CANSIPS forecasts the Atlantic to look like, sst-wise, by the peak of the 2025 season.

zal0phus · #8 Postby **zal0phus** » Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:02 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just putting this out here, but this is what CANSIPS forecasts the Atlantic to look like, sst-wise, by the peak of the 2025 season.

https://i.imgur.com/NRJzjiA.png

Outrageous. I wonder if this year was the 2004 to 2025's 2005

WaveBreaking · #9 Postby **WaveBreaking** » Wed Dec 04, 2024 10:59 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just putting this out here, but this is what CANSIPS forecasts the Atlantic to look like, sst-wise, by the peak of the 2025 season.

https://i.imgur.com/NRJzjiA.png

That absolutely ridiculous warm blob (that has widespread areas of +1.8°C anomalies) in the subtropics make me believe we won’t see as many (but not 0) Caribbean storm tracks next year and instead have more tracks N of the Lesser Antilles due to a weaker Bermuda-Azores High as well as more chances for subtropical spin-ups, which the CanSIPS does show as seen in the MSLP anoms and precip anoms. That blob could also cause instability problems since the anomalies in the subtropics are greater than they are in the MDR.

However, I don’t think this season will be Recurve Central like 2023 was, since the CanSIPS shows a stout blocking ridge over Atlantic Canada all the way through October, which would mean more of a possible threat to the East Coast instead of safe OTS tracks. There’s also still a strong signal for tracks through the Caribbean in the precip anoms.

As for storm count, I’m not even gonna bother thinking about that since ENSO forecasts were not the best last year, and we haven’t gotten past the spring predictability barrier.

Ik its way too early to be speculating tracks, but I was bored and had some free time :lol:

FireRat · #10 Postby **FireRat** » Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:35 am

zal0phus wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Just putting this out here, but this is what CANSIPS forecasts the Atlantic to look like, sst-wise, by the peak of the 2025 season.

https://i.imgur.com/NRJzjiA.png

Outrageous. I wonder if this year was the 2004 to 2025's 2005

My thoughts too man! 2025 could switch things up quite a bit, and be a tricky one

Hurricane2022 · #11 Postby **Hurricane2022** » Mon Dec 09, 2024 12:16 am

Impressive agreement so far between Cansips, NMME and CFS

Hurricane2022 · #12 Postby **Hurricane2022** » Mon Dec 09, 2024 12:23 am

The Subtropics anomalies being warmer than the MDR ones. I think I already have seen a show similar to this before. :lol:

Woofde · #13 Postby **Woofde** » Sat Dec 14, 2024 3:34 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:The Subtropics anomalies being warmer than the MDR ones. I think I already have seen a show similar to this before.

Yeah, that seems to be a trend in recent years, the subtropics are warming at a faster rate than the tropics. It doesn't seem to be overly hindering to how a season performs however as we've seen in those same seasons.

Obviously we are in major grain of salt territory, but if the pattern of very warm Atlantic doesn't cease I'm expecting another above average season. The Y-intercept for Atlantic warmth is still way above, trending similarily to last year, it'll be easier for the warmth to rebuild come Spring. ENSO will be a big question in the upcoming months. I don't expect we will see a clear cut look of hyperactivity in Spring as we did last year. The models are hinting at a Atlantic la nina as well.

WalterWhite · #14 Postby **WalterWhite** » Sat Dec 14, 2024 5:38 pm

Woofde wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:The Subtropics anomalies being warmer than the MDR ones. I think I already have seen a show similar to this before.
https://imageshack.com/i/poobwtSkp
Yeah, that seems to be a trend in recent years, the subtropics are warming at a faster rate than the tropics. It doesn't seem to be overly hindering to how a season performs however as we've seen in those same seasons.

Obviously we are in major grain of salt territory, but if the pattern of very warm Atlantic doesn't cease I'm expecting another above average season. The Y-intercept for Atlantic warmth is still way above, trending similarily to last year, it'll be easier for the warmth to rebuild come Spring. ENSO will be a big question in the upcoming months. I don't expect we will see a clear cut look of hyperactivity in Spring as we did last year. The models are hinting at a Atlantic la nina as well.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241214/3ea1ac2e3cbac95933c644cbe6d7972e.jpg

The NMME always forecasts very warm subtropics as far as I can remember.

Category5Kaiju · #15 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sun Dec 15, 2024 11:02 am

I think it's still kind of early and things could look different by spring 2025, but at least with some of these long-range models, there seem to be hints that we may be in some sort of neutral limbo/borderline weak La Nina conditions by next hurricane season (which, alone, would be a strong + for Atlantic action). El Nino, imho, is looking pretty unlikely in the grand scheme of things. Take a look.

As we can see here, the current cold pool in the equatorial Pacific erodes by next spring, but it is not followed by the Western Pacific warm pool creeping eastward and making its way toward the surface. The cold pool disappears, but then nothing seems to really happen afterwards. This seems hallmark of what you would expect during a neutral ENSO period.

The projected sea surface heights tell a similar story. If we were to enter +ENSO, let alone an El Nino, we should be seeing areas of red. This is clearly not the case come July-September.

On hurricanetrack's most recent video where Mark interviewed Phil Klotzbach, even Phil seemed to think that an El Nino would be very unlikely by next season. This all makes sense, especially considering the natural cycle of ENSO and how we just came out of a strong El Nino.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 30, 2024 4:23 pm

Looks like NAO will take a big dip in negative territory by late January to early Febuary and that will warm the North Atlantic sst's.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png

KirbyDude25 · #17 Postby **KirbyDude25** » Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:19 pm

A likely second-year Niña + still-high SSTs make me think 2025 won't break the recent trend of active seasons, though one should take that with a grain of salt given that it's only January and I'm not a meteorologist. I suspect spring models will provide more clarity, though not so obvious a signal as last year.

WalterWhite · #18 Postby **WalterWhite** » Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:33 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:A likely second-year Niña + still-high SSTs make me think 2025 won't break the recent trend of active seasons, though one should take that with a grain of salt given that it's only January and I'm not a meteorologist. I suspect spring models will provide more clarity, though not so obvious a signal as last year.

I thought this winter is cool-neutral in terms of ENSO and not a full-blown La Niña. It might be better to look to first-year La Niñas.

OtakuForecaster · #19 Postby **OtakuForecaster** » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:34 am

WalterWhite wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:A likely second-year Niña + still-high SSTs make me think 2025 won't break the recent trend of active seasons, though one should take that with a grain of salt given that it's only January and I'm not a meteorologist. I suspect spring models will provide more clarity, though not so obvious a signal as last year.

I thought this winter is cool-neutral in terms of ENSO and not a full-blown La Niña. It might be better to look to first-year La Niñas.

It's also important to remember that not every La Nina is the same. Last year's hurricane season took awhile to get going (Beryl aside), and in 2022 (which if I'm not mistaken was also a La Nina year), there were absolutely no August storms at all.

But yeah, I'm with the first guy that it should still be active. There really isn't much current reason to favor El Nino that I've personally seen, aside from the fact that we appear to have lost our -PDO signature some time ago.

Long John · #20 Postby **Long John** » Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:50 pm

last year was not a la nina

2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

Who is online