2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

With the expectation of ENSO being Neutral by next summer, it looks like this season may be similar to last year's one. We will see down the road how things will evolve.

My forecast numbers are:

16/7/3

Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Mario
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda

[AnnularCane]

Oh yeah, my name is back on the list this year. Amazing how fast 6 years goes by.

[Hurricane2022]

Here is my "initial" prediction for this season.
15 - 18 tropical storms
5 - 7 hurricanes
1 - 3 majors
ACE 90 - 95

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, Yellow Evan, aspen, kevin

How you see the season playing out?

[Kingarabian]

I think a little more active than 2024. -PDO/-ENSO aren't going anywhere. Minimal long trackers and more systems off of the coast of Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

This winter we’ve seen a lot more high latitude ridging in the North Pacific/Alaska with a lot more troughing off Japan, likely in response to the warmest SSTs in the tropics being over the Maritime Continent/West Pacific. This has altered the PDO configuration some and by extension the +PMM that emerged last fall has mostly persisted. If we get to the point where we have a solid +PMM/PDO that would bond well but I also don’t think the aforementioned favorable Pacific mid-latitude forcing is likely to sustain into the second half of the winter. More importantly, a La Niña base state has also been persistent the last several weeks and shows no signs of letting up, although that could change come spring. For now, I’d favor a quiet season.

[StormWeather]

Random thing, but recon is flying a non-tasked mission in the CPAC on a low it looks like:

[StormWeather]

Random thing, but recon is flying a non-tasked mission in the CPAC on a low it looks like:

https://share.icloud.com/photos/07ey5AQD0lydh4G7wtpgC218g

This low is NE of Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the upcomming season may be a bit active if el niño costero persists thru the summer.

[Yellow Evan]

Another slightly below average season inbound tentatively. PDO and ENSO have muddled configurations while a strong -PMM is established along with a weak coastal Nino. Years with a broadly similar Pacific SST configuration at this point in the year to 2025 include 2013, 2001, 2006, 1985, and 1996. Four out of five those years saw the PMM reverse itself over the upcoming months, significantly so in the case of 1985. This also makes sense given the lack of broader +ENSO/-PDO/+SPDO forcing to sustain the -PMM. Those same four seasons saw ENSO stay in a relative stalemate, with half of those staying in neutral and other half dipping to weak La Nina, while the outlier year (2006) evolved into El Nino. Three of those five years were below 100 ACE and featured a combined 7 major hurricanes and exhibited a cold tongue of South America that lifted the monsoon trough too north. Of course, if the El Nino coastero lingers around for more than I personally expect (2012 or 2006 would work as analogs in that respect) or even if a +PMM can emerge that is primarily driven by positive SSTAs in the tropical northern Pacific rather than negative SSTAs in the tropical southern Pacific (as was the case in 1985), this would favor more activity.

[Kingarabian]

-PMM and -PDO will be hard to overcome. Maybe a season similar to 2017.

[cycloneye]

The last few runs from GFS has something developing south of Central-America on long range.



Here is Andy's message about a posibility of a kelvin wave thay may help on development chances.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1919002041373929539

[Kingarabian]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC but would be surprised to see a major hurricane this early.

[cycloneye]

The CAG can go on either side.

[StormWeather]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC but would be surprised to see a major hurricane this early.

We’ve had near Cat 5s in May before in the Eastern Pacific, so it wouldn’t surprise me.

[Kingarabian]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC but would be surprised to see a major hurricane this early.

We’ve had near Cat 5s in May before in the Eastern Pacific, so it wouldn’t surprise me.

Over the past 15 years, yes but they're mainly during the last week or so in May and heading into June.