2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

12z EURO on the 850mb vorticity mode. Over Barbados abajan.

[StormWeather]

12z EURO on the 850mb vorticity mode. Over Barbados abajan.

https://i.imgur.com/eZj3UnP.gif

How do you have the 12Z run on TT? I only see 06z

[TomballEd]

Euro has a fair amount of support from its ensembles. None survive the Graveyard but a few of the ensembles are seeing a second wave in the MDR.

[StormWeather]

Euro has a fair amount of support from its ensembles. None survive the Graveyard but a few of the ensembles are seeing a second wave in the MDR.

Dexter and Erin in July, sure, why not? /j

In all seriousness, interesting that the MDR is trying to get going in late-July rather then mid-August.

[floridasun]

my weatherman here Miami wfor ch 4 say not he see next 10 days or so any thing in tropical so not worry about

[jlauderdal]

my weatherman here Miami wfor ch 4 say not he see next 10 days or so any thing in tropical so not worry about

Was that Ivan Cabrera in WFOR?

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[TomballEd]

my weatherman here Miami wfor ch 4 say not he see next 10 days or so any thing in tropical so not worry about

Was that Ivan Cabrera in WFOR?

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NHC took his dare and just went 10/20 lemon on the MDR system.

[GCANE]

100 hours out and GFS and ICON are showing something coming off a stalling front off the GA coast tracking west and possibly impacting Savannah area.
Euro is showing heavy convection but no surface low yet.
Watching how future model runs pan out on this.

[Blinhart]

So everyone is saying that ex-93L won't do much in the next week when it rotates around this Hight, should only do about the same thing it did this time in South Louisiana.

[TomballEd]

So everyone is saying that ex-93L won't do much in the next week when it rotates around this Hight, should only do about the same thing it did this time in South Louisiana.

There are a few of the GFS and Euro ensembles that say Son of 93L could outperform the original 93L. Under 5%. 93L would not have been a nothing burger if it had come off Florida 100 miles or so farther south.

I had a friend that died offshore who was renting a house about half a mile behind the Rice Palace.

[floridasun]

my weatherman here Miami wfor ch 4 say not he see next 10 days or so any thing in tropical so not worry about

Was that Ivan Cabrera in WFOR?

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

yes him but Friday night he talk about area

[Stratton23]

Blinhart i wouldnt say that, this looks to get further out over the gulf this time, their is increasing support from models of at least a surface low developing, gotta watch this again regardless if it failed the first time to develop

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1946598974623797269

[TomballEd]

Blinhart i wouldnt say that, this looks to get further out over the gulf this time, their is increasing support from models of at least a surface low developing, gotta watch this again regardless if it failed the first time to develop

GFS brings a 1008 mb closed low heading to the WNW into the LA/TX state line. Would bring more rain and cool temperatures to MBY, a good thing. Would also bring more rain to the Hill Country, not so good.

A week away and one model. ICON almost closes something off but not quite. Canadian doesn't close the inverted trough.

[hurricane2025]

Hunch we will have name storm in gulf mid next week

[TomballEd]

I wouldn't be surprised, if we did get a named storm in the next two weeks, it would start from the same trough that a few of the ensembles see developing in the Gulf. Except it develops off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. NHC seems eager to name subtropical systems.


The either side of Florida system of non-tropical origin could repeat the week after the one people are seeing now. I'm trying to remember the two storms that developed from one stalled trough a few years back.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS develops a weak system, but brings a ton of rain into se texas for 3-4 days

[Blown Away]

At the point where the GFS run goes into August where we would expect conditions to hint towards development in the MDR & SW Atlantic… So far no indication of the “switch flipping”…

[tropicwatch]

The GFS and EURO seem to be in agreement about a low possibly a depression close to Louisiana around the 26th of July. Might have a lemon coming up.
GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2025071918&fh=6

EURO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2025071912&fh=168

[StormWeather]

At the point where the GFS run goes into August where we would expect conditions to hint towards development in the MDR & SW Atlantic… So far no indication of the “switch flipping”…

Well the switch doesn’t traditionally flip until around or after August 20th, usually. When August 20th gets into range in the model runs, you can probably expect signals to start showing themselves most likely.