Crazy model runs?

[SconnieCane]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

[kevin]

887 mb / 166 kt on the 00z HAFS-B run for Milton.

[CFLHurricane]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

2024 is fully intent on drop kicking all of us off our home & auto insurance. I’ve knocked on all the woods with fingers crossed over lucky rabbit feet that Milton gets his wings clipped and the GFS is full of it in the midrange per usual.

[Travorum]

Milton continues to provide insane model runs, only for the storm to overperform the models in the short run. Anyway here's a 884mb/172kts frame on 12z HAFS-B.

[ChrisH-UK]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

Turned out to be a sub 900mb storm after all.

[aspen]

Milton continues to provide insane model runs, only for the storm to overperform the models in the short run. Anyway here's a 884mb/172kts frame on 12z HAFS-B.

https://i.imgur.com/3FS0obM.png

Since this nailed Milton’s 897 mbar peak tonight, I wouldn’t rule out that insane second peak.

[MarioProtVI]

The HAFS-A went mad with power on the latest SHEM invest. This is definitely the highest I’ve ever seen any model make a storm, outside of the broken 777 mb Mangkhut run. 227 kt is a whopping 261 mph i.e an F5 tornado!!!  https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1910304273608630526

[Travorum]

The HAFS-A went mad with power on the latest SHEM invest. This is definitely the highest I’ve ever seen any model make a storm, outside of the broken 777 mb Mangkhut run. 227 kt is a whopping 261 mph i.e an F5 tornado!!! https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1910304273608630526
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857251938772582411/1359892255674204431/IMG_4682.png?ex=67f921db&is=67f7d05b&hm=221e37ac3a6199bc47208a3795851447012b06ff373f173c95f4563fda35c973&

The crazy thing is the 06z run didn't come out of nowhere, the 18z run had 896mb/177kt and the 12z yesterday peaked at 884mb/198kt — a run which by itself would be insane if not for the 06z.


Also with the 06z run, the peak intensity is just at the end of the run. If the run were extended a few timesteps, its very possible there would have been a lower pressure as it was dropping at about 6mb/hr in the final timestep. Per Andy on twitter ocean coupling does appear to be working correctly:
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1910355573767352351

[Blown Away]

227.3 knots = 261 mph

[WaveBreaking]

Not as crazy as the others but the GFS showing a Cat 4 hurricane w/dual-channel outflow in May

[MarioProtVI]

Speaks for itself

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/7o1obc7.png

Speaks for itself

Quit staring at me.

[TomballEd]

https://i.imgur.com/7o1obc7.png

Speaks for itself

Some people looking at that on Josh Morgerman (i-Cyclone)'s Facebook page are acting like 14 year old boys. Their minds are in the gutter.

[Woofde]

Speaks for itself

0_0 ... That would be a satellite image for the record books...

[Ptarmigan]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

It almost gave me a heart attack.

https://i.imgur.com/fN4KS5e.png

If that did occur. That would be a hypercane. If it hit a large urban area.............

[sasha_B]

Worth noting (at least in this thread about crazy model runs) that the KMA model shows the strongest (or second-strongest, if you count Labor Day '35) US Eastern Seaboard landfall in recorded history on the 2025.08.13/12z run. Andrew '92 (Homestead, FL) was 922 hPa, followed by Hugo '89 (Charleston, SC) at 934 hPa - this Korean model shows a 919 hPa OBX landfall for Erin. Not significant enough to post in the main thread for that storm but fits in here IMO.
 https://x.com/reid_lt/status/1955726619944870213

[CrazyC83]

Has a model ever forecast a sub-900 pressure - for an extratropical cyclone?

[zzzh]

Has a model ever forecast a sub-900 pressure - for an extratropical cyclone?

Yes
 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1582008472425885697

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/7o1obc7.png

Speaks for itself

0_0 ... That would be a satellite image for the record books...

That looks like one of those psychiatrist images.

Do you see eyes and a nose or something like mammaries with something in between them

[BobHarlem]

Adding this one because of how sadistic it is. 20th Anniversary of Katrina hit.