2025 Global ACE: NH - 182.2 (327.0) / NATL - 39.0 (64.8) / EPAC - 87.1 (94.6) / WPAC - 56.1 (158.1) / NIO - 0 (9.5)

[LarryWx]

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

https://i.imgur.com/kyq67Dx.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

Thanks, Luis. Seasons with 3+ H hits on the CONUS are considered quite active for the CONUS. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ CONUS H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

[cycloneye]

NATL better start to get ACE soon or it will fall well behind the normal average. WPAC continues to be the worse basin as the gap between 2025 ACE and the average to this date continues to get very wide.

[KWT]

Hard to see anyway the WPAC catches up to average now, would need an exceptional burst and nothing on the horizon that would be suggestive of that level of activity.

EPAC and NATL aren't far from average but the EPAC looks like after Kiko there isn't much on the docket, so even if it does catch up to average in the next few days it will soon fall behind again,

The NATL did look like it might catch up but 91l increasingly looks like it might not come off, at least in any great way, so the NATL is increasingly slipping behind the pace. Of course in recent years the 2nd half of the season has often exploded, so that doesn't mean a great deal for the moment, though the longer it takes to get things going the more the odds of a technical below average ACE season increases.

[LarryWx]

Hard to see anyway the WPAC catches up to average now, would need an exceptional burst and nothing on the horizon that would be suggestive of that level of activity.

EPAC and NATL aren't far from average but the EPAC looks like after Kiko there isn't much on the docket, so even if it does catch up to average in the next few days it will soon fall behind again,

The NATL did look like it might catch up but 91l increasingly looks like it might not come off, at least in any great way, so the NATL is increasingly slipping behind the pace. Of course in recent years the 2nd half of the season has often exploded, so that doesn't mean a great deal for the moment, though the longer it takes to get things going the more the odds of a technical below average ACE season increases.

As a result of the large amount of ACE from Erin, 2025 NATL climbed out of the depths to way up at 12th of the last 75 for the date as of August 22nd. But with only a few ACE from Fernand since then, 2025 with its current 39 has fallen all of the way back to 33rd of the last 75 and just below the mean since 1951 of 41 and solidly below the 1991-2020 mean near 50. That 1991-2020 mean rises to ~60 as of Sep 10th. So, absent 91L developing into a TS+ during the next 5 days, ACE would very likely fall to well below the active era mean as of Sept 10th.

[cycloneye]

As of 9/13/25, the gap at the NATL continues to get larger between the 2025 data and the average. WPAC has a bigger gap.