Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles

[Teban54]

[Stratton23]

0z GFS now develops this in the eastern gulf fwiw

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 12 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, south
of 18N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N-17N between 52W-57W.

Stitched ASCAT METOP-B/C passes from THU evening...

[GCANE]

I am estimating something could spin up around Monday in the vicinity south of Jamaica / Haiti.
Wave may be in that area then.
GFS is forecasting an anti-cyclone overhead and it will be on the SW side of the TUTT.
Starting to see some pickup in Amazon juice now on MIMIC-TPW.

[Weathertracker96]

I am estimating something could spin up around Monday in the vicinity south of Jamaica / Haiti.
Wave may be in that area then.
GFS is forecasting an anti-cyclone overhead and it will be on the SW side of the TUTT.
Starting to see some pickup in Amazon juice now on MIMIC-TPW.

You think the models may pick up on that soon?

[GCANE]

I am estimating something could spin up around Monday in the vicinity south of Jamaica / Haiti.
Wave may be in that area then.
GFS is forecasting an anti-cyclone overhead and it will be on the SW side of the TUTT.
Starting to see some pickup in Amazon juice now on MIMIC-TPW.

You think the models may pick up on that soon?

Hard to say, they haven't been doing well of late.

[MGC]

Lots of shear across the central and eastern Caribbean right now. Might do something in the W Carb......MGC

[GCANE]

Watching a wave interact with a TUTT is a thing of beauty.

[AJC3]

Rador shows the wave axis is pretty much on top of Barbados now. It still has a decent NE-SW tilt to its axis. I'll stitch together the morning ASCAT METOP B/C passes as soon as they post to MANATI in a couple hours to see if the axis is actually oriented as radar suggests...

edit: as luck would have it, Barbados is right in the middle of the pass orbit of METOP-B and not far from it for METOP-C, so there's likely to be a gap over the wave axis, even in a stitched image mosaic.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... Apes=35388

[GCANE]

TUTT is already enhancing upper-level outflow.
Front coming off the CONUS east coast will start to squeeze off and weaken the TUTT in the next few days.

[GCANE]

Douglas-Charles Airport, Dominica reporting light WNW winds

[AJC3]

Rador shows the wave axis is pretty much on top of Barbados now. It still has a decent NE-SW tilt to its axis. I'll stitch together the morning ASCAT METOP B/C passes as soon as they post to MANATI in a couple hours to see if the axis is actually oriented as radar suggests...

edit: as luck would have it, Barbados is right in the middle of the pass orbit of METOP-B and not far from it for METOP-C, so there's likely to be a gap over the wave axis, even in a stitched image mosaic.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 50&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=35388

It turns out the wave axis was very likely in the gap around the LON of the Lesser Antilles at the times of the passes. Oh well...

And as an aside, what's up with the URL for the Barbados radar loop? Seems the webmaster/programmer at their met agency has a sense of humor! LOL

[GCANE]

Convection developing rapidly now SW of the TUTT in low shear.
Large afternoon showers coming off PR indicating low-level moisture.
This may be about 24 hours ahead of what I was expecting yesterday.

[GCANE]

Bouy in the East Carib. Not too bad.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... m=E&tz=AST

[TomballEd]

It looks to me like blow ups over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico may be diurnal. Will now if they persist another 4 or 5 hours.