Tropical Wave near the Cabo Verde Islands (10/10)

[colbroe]

A new area of intrest will emerge in a few days off the coast of Africa with a more Westerly motion .
This one the islands should take note of

[ElectricStorm]

Here it is

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[SconnieCane]

Is this the one that some of the hurricane models initialized for 92L showed becoming a beastly hurricane off to its southeast?

[Travorum]

Is this the one that some of the hurricane models initialized for 92L showed becoming a beastly hurricane off to its southeast?

Yeah, both HAFS parent domains showed development of this wave up until the 06z run today, with a W/WSW track through to the end of the run where it's at about 40/43W. Here's the trend:



Again the 06z HAFS runs didn't develop by the end of the run, neither did any of the HWRF runs, but that could also lead to later development closer to the islands depending on how big 92L's outflow gets. Definitely worth watching the trend on this.

[Teban54]

IIRC, the recent global model runs mostly have this recurve and follow the weakness opened by 92L, even in runs that do develop this AOI.

Of course, if development is delayed until the wave reaches further west, that may be a different question...

Some runs also merge this with a later wave that emerges from Africa around Friday, or kills this one in favor of the latter.

[MGC]

Already showing some decent spin. Might be a long tracker......MGC

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible towards the latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
towards the latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to
20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Some runs also merge this with a later wave that emerges from Africa around Friday, or kills this one in favor of the latter.

Could that possibly be why the 7-day percentage hasn't gone up? Are they still showing that possibility?

[TomballEd]

A fair number of GFS ensemble members see a storm, the Euro ensembles have no development.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro develops this late (9/28-9/29) in the Bahamas, rides up the east coast (gets very close to West Palm Beach) and clips the OBX as a 965/970mb hurricane.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands continues
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.