2025 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Next system could be your classic Mexican cruiser parallel to the southwest coast. Sometimes big ones come out of these this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian What about this one? Will it make landfall in Mexico around Baja?

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, after Narda goes away, what is your expectations for the rest of the EPAC season?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, after Narda goes away, what is your expectations for the rest of the EPAC season?

Expecting good activity in October at this point. Basin hasn't let up all season long. SOI is at +3 which is very anemic for a La Nina. Meaning favorable lower atmospheric pressure setup is possible. Basin has warmed up some as well.

[Kingarabian]

Models showing 3 disturbances over the next 10 days. Potentially seeing 1-3 separate systems.

[cycloneye]

Here are two, Kingarabian.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located well to the west of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles offshore of southwest Mexico is beginning to
become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development during the next few days and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form by the middle of the week. The
system is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then
turn west-northwestward after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the southwest
coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the system
next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

And now three.

2. Just South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a small, but concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated there was a weak surface circulation. Some additional
development is possible over the next day or two before it merges
with a larger area of disturbed weather, (EP98), to its southwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the
southwest coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
of the system thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the
early portion of next week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized. Additional
development of this system appears unlikely over the next day or two
before it is absorbed by a larger area of disturbed weather (EP98)
to its south-southwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development of the system
thereafter and a tropical depression could form by early next week
as the system moves generally west-northwestward, just offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression will likely form by early next week as the
system moves generally west-northwestward, south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression will likely form this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within a broad area of
disturbed weather off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple
of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

This will be 99E shortly.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Invest 99E is up.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast
of Mexico by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
the disturbance. A tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Astromanía]

Epac is already above average and above the 2022 season in terms of ACE

[cycloneye]

After the 91E fiasco, is the season over for this basin?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

After the 91E fiasco, is the season over for this basin?

Not quite evidently:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A surface trough located a couple hundred miles offshore of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[Astromanía]

I don't know if people have analyzed this, but the EPAC has been wild this decade, with five major landfalls, including Otis (Cat 5, 2023), Lidia (Cat 4, 2023), Erick (Cat 3, 2025), Roslyn (Cat 3, 2022), and John (Cat 3, 2024).
In comparison, the 2010s only had Odile (Cat 3, 2014), Patricia (Cat 4, 2015), and Willa (Cat 3, 2018), while the 2000s had just Kenna (Cat 4, 2002) and Lane (Cat 3, 2006).
And we’re only halfway through this decade! I think it has to do with global warming, because the past few years haven’t been particularly favorable for the EPAC overall, except for the strong El Niño events in 2014–2016 and 2023.
Still, the impacts have been worse and more frequent. We’ve seen the first Pacific Cat 5 landfall in recorded history, the wettest Pacific tropical cyclone in Mexico, and even rare threats to California and Hawaii.
So imagine if we get a combination of El Niño plus a +PDO, +PMM, and -AMO at the same time — that would be catastrophic. What do you think? YellowEvan Kingarabian