2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricane Mike]

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

[crownweather]

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

Yeah, probably not going to happen. It's likely the GFS doing GFS things. Probably a erroneous spin-up that always occurs with the GFS model this time of year. Until other models jump on-board, I'm discounting.

[blp]

GFS not the only one. 00z Icon and 12z CMC and GEFS showing something.

[Teban54]

GFS continues to show a quick spinup in the SW Caribbean next Wednesday, briefly getting below 1000 mb before landfall in Nicaragua. It's now almost in the 5-day frame.

ICON shows a broad low; not much on other models.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much, unless something does try and coalesce as GFS is hinting, I think we can finally put a bow on this season. The 700mb -300 mb Relative Humidity forecast for 11/20 shows exceedingly dry air from behind the front to envelope most of the Central & Western Caribbean. By that time we'll be nearing the end of the season and it would take some time for any Gyre to propagate northward and modify the air down there.

I suppose there's a slim <10 chance of a quick trigger TS forming in the nearer term down there in the 5-7 day range but beyond that, 2025 should be a wrap.

[Jr0d]

The GFS doesn't think the season is over...while its doubtful we could see a MDR storm this late, perhaps its something to watch next week.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs has been showing a tropical storm hitting the Florida panhandle first week of December

[Teban54]

Gfs has been showing a tropical storm hitting the Florida panhandle first week of December

[Teban54]

A little bit of noise on the Euro ensembles:

[StormWeather]

A little bit of noise on the Euro ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/gJ0RSbd1/15480045.gif

That would be interesting if it verified.

2025 doing 2025 things (December storm why not?)

[MGC]

No US landfall in 2025?? GFS: Hold my whiskey bottle. If this verifies it would be unpresented, a landfalling hurricane on the north gulf in December?......Nope!.....MGC

[mitchell]

Didn't have a December landfall on my bingo card!

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I personally don't think said storm is going to happen and that it's a ghost storm.

With that being said....it would be the ultimate troll move if 2025 managed to do something like that. We're in a -ENSO, the Caribbean is still 28 C, so....I guess it's technically not impossible? But likely? Heck no.

[Teban54]

There were 24 Atlantic tropical and subtropical cyclones that existed in December (at TS strength or higher) in official HURDAT records (1851+), plus 1 unofficial Martinique-Venezuela hurricane in 1822. Of these:

• 11 formed in November and lasted into December while tropical or subtropical
• 1 existed in the Gulf of Mexico in December (1925 Florida TS)
• 7 existed in the Caribbean Sea in December
• 18 storms, a majority, existed in the open Atlantic in December (north of Greater Antilles, not counting Olga 2007), mostly in the subtropics
• 8 attained hurricane strength in December, all but one in the open Atlantic; all peaked at Category 1
• The minimum TC pressure recorded in December was 979 mb (Nicole 1998)

The exact scenario shown on 6z GFS would break the following records:

• Most intense Atlantic tropical cyclone in December
• The only TC to reach hurricane intensity in the Gulf in December
• The only Atlantic TC to make landfall as a hurricane in December, in official records (not counting 1822)
• Northernmost landfall in the Atlantic in December
• Latest landfall in the US in a calendar year (2 days later than the 1925 TS)
• Possibly the latest Category 2 Atlantic hurricane in a calendar year, if it reaches such intensity (beating Otto 2016)

[Teban54]

No US landfall in 2025?? GFS: Hold my whiskey bottle. If this verifies it would be unpresented, a landfalling hurricane on the north gulf in December?......Nope!.....MGC

Something something Chantal

[StormWeather]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I personally don't think said storm is going to happen and that it's a ghost storm.

With that being said....it would be the ultimate troll move if 2025 managed to do something like that. We're in a -ENSO, the Caribbean is still 28 C, so....I guess it's technically not impossible? But likely? Heck no.

I mean unexpectedly, the AI models (which have done well this year) do have a bit of a signal, so it is something to watch and see.

[mitchell]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I personally don't think said storm is going to happen and that it's a ghost storm.

I don' think you are really out on a limb On the other hand, 2 GFS model runs in a row show a 985 mb. tropical system in the western Caribbean 10 days out (December 1).

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/PC_WeatherBoy/status/1992232561519612172

[Teban54]

12z GFS, 3rd run in a row albeit much further west:



More importantly, 12z EPS has a much stronger signal:

[StormWeather]

If this manages to become Nestor (if it even forms at all) then that would be ironic because the last storm to form in December was Subtropical Storm 15L of 2013, and funny enough, it formed in December and had it been named operationally it would have been named Nestor.