2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the 2026 indicators thread. Look at the Early thoughts of the 2026 season thread made by Category5kaiju. It looks like the main factors that may guide how active the upcomming hurricane season be is how ENSO will behave by next summer (Check the 2026 ENSO Updates thread), how the NAO will be in terms of the sst's and how the West African Monsoon will be. Let's have good analysis and discussions. Note. Took out many links from past years indicators threads as they were not working.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png - NAO

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb ... v5.amo.dat - AMO

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... rica.shtml - WAM

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... wa_obs.gif - Daily Obs of WAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

December CanSIPS for August:

[Category5Kaiju]

Aw dang, that sucks. Yeah, looks like Tropical Tidbits has quite a few 404 errors with those old links.

Anyways, interesting to see that at least at this point in time, the CANSIPS is predicting yet another year with a very warm Atlantic profile. Overall activity level is something we won't know until closer to the season, especially with the moving puzzle pieces of ENSO, WAM, etc.

However....my early inclination is to believe that assuming this very warm Atlantic look pans out next year, irregardless of total activity, we'll likely yet again have a season that features one or several storms that attain at least high-end Category 4 strength, if not even Category 5.

[FireRat]

2026 is going to be interesting to track, especially after all the crazy seasons lately, especially with such a tricky 2025. Next year will probably throw its own curveballs too, lets see how it shapes up over the next several months!

[cycloneye]

Aw dang, that sucks. Yeah, looks like Tropical Tidbits has quite a few 404 errors with those old links.

Anyways, interesting to see that at least at this point in time, the CANSIPS is predicting yet another year with a very warm Atlantic profile. Overall activity level is something we won't know until closer to the season, especially with the moving puzzle pieces of ENSO, WAM, etc.

However....my early inclination is to believe that assuming this very warm Atlantic look pans out next year, irregardless of total activity, we'll likely yet again have a season that features one or several storms that attain at least high-end Category 4 strength, if not even Category 5.

Will be posting links that work at that first post. If anyone has new links, post them and I will add to the first post. Every link is important for this thread to have the members look at plenty of information.

[Team Ghost]

I see nothing to suggest a return of the West African Monsoon or a flip towards a negative AMO. There is also currently strong downwelling in the Equatorial Pacific, suggesting an El Niño pattern for the 2026-27 winter and likely a strong one at that with how quickly -ENSO conditions are terminating, and it appears that the PDO may flip positive within the next few months.

With this in mind, I cannot rationally justify 2026 being an active hurricane season. The expected profile for 2026 is a +AMO, suppressed WAM, a strong El Niño, with an uncertain PDO. In the satellite era, 1997 and 2015 are the only years that fit this profile; averaging the seasonal totals for these two years gives 9.5 storms, 3.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and 52 ACE; and I have arbitrarily rounded these to 10 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (as I have explained in more detail on Category5Kaiju’s thread). I think slightly more activity is possible because of the uncertainty on the PDO and the degree of the potential El Niño, but I do not foresee totals surpassing the 1951-2020 climatological median at the moment.

[cycloneye]

I see nothing to suggest a return of the West African Monsoon or a flip towards a negative AMO. There is also currently strong downwelling in the Equatorial Pacific, suggesting an El Niño pattern for the 2026-27 winter and likely a strong one at that with how quickly -ENSO conditions are terminating, and it appears that the PDO may flip positive within the next few months.

With this in mind, I cannot rationally justify 2026 being an active hurricane season. The expected profile for 2026 is a +AMO, suppressed WAM, a strong La Niña, with an uncertain PDO. In the satellite era, 1997 and 2015 are the only years that fit this profile; averaging the seasonal totals for these two years gives 9.5 storms, 3.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and 52 ACE; and I have arbitrarily rounded these to 10 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (as I have explained in more detail on Category5Kaiju’s thread). I think slightly more activity is possible because of the uncertainty on the PDO and the degree of the potential El Niño, but I do not foresee totals surpassing the 1951-2020 climatological median at the moment.

A strong La Niña for summer of 2026?

[Team Ghost]

I see nothing to suggest a return of the West African Monsoon or a flip towards a negative AMO. There is also currently strong downwelling in the Equatorial Pacific, suggesting an El Niño pattern for the 2026-27 winter and likely a strong one at that with how quickly -ENSO conditions are terminating, and it appears that the PDO may flip positive within the next few months.

With this in mind, I cannot rationally justify 2026 being an active hurricane season. The expected profile for 2026 is a +AMO, suppressed WAM, a strong La Niña, with an uncertain PDO. In the satellite era, 1997 and 2015 are the only years that fit this profile; averaging the seasonal totals for these two years gives 9.5 storms, 3.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and 52 ACE; and I have arbitrarily rounded these to 10 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (as I have explained in more detail on Category5Kaiju’s thread). I think slightly more activity is possible because of the uncertainty on the PDO and the degree of the potential El Niño, but I do not foresee totals surpassing the 1951-2020 climatological median at the moment.

A strong La Niña for summer of 2026?

I fixed my post.

[Category5Kaiju]

I see nothing to suggest a return of the West African Monsoon or a flip towards a negative AMO. There is also currently strong downwelling in the Equatorial Pacific, suggesting an El Niño pattern for the 2026-27 winter and likely a strong one at that with how quickly -ENSO conditions are terminating, and it appears that the PDO may flip positive within the next few months.

With this in mind, I cannot rationally justify 2026 being an active hurricane season. The expected profile for 2026 is a +AMO, suppressed WAM, a strong El Niño, with an uncertain PDO. In the satellite era, 1997 and 2015 are the only years that fit this profile; averaging the seasonal totals for these two years gives 9.5 storms, 3.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and 52 ACE; and I have arbitrarily rounded these to 10 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (as I have explained in more detail on Category5Kaiju’s thread). I think slightly more activity is possible because of the uncertainty on the PDO and the degree of the potential El Niño, but I do not foresee totals surpassing the 1951-2020 climatological median at the moment.

Is there a long-range model/resource you’re using that is predicting that next year is going to see a suppressed WAM again? I know of quite a few places to get extended ENSO predictions, on the other hand. But yeah, the WAM part interests me. I was just curious and would love to see where I could view something like that if possible!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Curious to see how strong this impending Niño will get, as well as how warm the Atlantic will be. 2023 evidently proved +++AMO can counterbalance +++ENSO given we had 20 NS and 148 ACE during one of the strongest Niños in recent history. With that being said I have my doubts the tropical Atlantic will reach that level of extreme warmth this time around, and as a result we may see a more subdued season in comparison.

[Team Ghost]

I see nothing to suggest a return of the West African Monsoon or a flip towards a negative AMO. There is also currently strong downwelling in the Equatorial Pacific, suggesting an El Niño pattern for the 2026-27 winter and likely a strong one at that with how quickly -ENSO conditions are terminating, and it appears that the PDO may flip positive within the next few months.

With this in mind, I cannot rationally justify 2026 being an active hurricane season. The expected profile for 2026 is a +AMO, suppressed WAM, a strong El Niño, with an uncertain PDO. In the satellite era, 1997 and 2015 are the only years that fit this profile; averaging the seasonal totals for these two years gives 9.5 storms, 3.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and 52 ACE; and I have arbitrarily rounded these to 10 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (as I have explained in more detail on Category5Kaiju’s thread). I think slightly more activity is possible because of the uncertainty on the PDO and the degree of the potential El Niño, but I do not foresee totals surpassing the 1951-2020 climatological median at the moment.

Is there a long-range model/resource you’re using that is predicting that next year is going to see a suppressed WAM again? I know of quite a few places to get extended ENSO predictions, on the other hand. But yeah, the WAM part interests me. I was just curious and would love to see where I could view something like that if possible!

You can choose long-range climate model that predicts velocity potential. These models are not reliable in and of themselves well in advance. (In fact, the CFSv2 does not even have a September 2026 output.) This is not the basis upon which I am predicting a suppressed West African Monsoon.

The basis is historic. In +AMO eras, moderate or stronger El Niño years after -ENSO years with a suppressed West African Monsoon tend to have a suppressed West African Monsoon as well. 1964 -> 1965, 1996 -> 1997, and 2001 -> 2002 are good examples of this.

[cycloneye]

Added new links for NAO, AMO and WAM. If there are other ones, any member can bring them and I will add to first post.

[Blown Away]

November 2025 prediction for August 2026.


November 2024 Prediction for August 2025.

I like to compare these long range model predictions. Similar patterns, maybe the GOA and CONUS get another break in 2026?