2026 ENSO Updates

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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 16, 2025 12:56 pm

PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#42 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Dec 17, 2025 6:53 am

cycloneye wrote:PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G8P6M4TbMAATC7U?format=png&name=medium


I won't be surprised if December comes out even higher at this rate:

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 19, 2025 8:58 pm

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002163360964788325

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#44 Postby Dean_175 » Sat Dec 20, 2025 1:37 am

It is way too early to put much stock into these models -with the spring barrier and significant forecast time. But the latest ensemble members from the CFS model are not as bullish towards a strong El Nino as they were a couple of weeks ago.
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 20, 2025 7:49 am

The plume of all the models say, not so fast about El Niño becoming moderate or strong by summer or fall.

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#46 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 20, 2025 11:04 am

Another strong WWB over the MC is in the forcast and it could end up in the WPAC by January. Let's see if this triggers a meaningful downwelling KW that doesn't fragment once it reaches the dateline.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Dec 20, 2025 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 20, 2025 11:07 am



If this is the case then El Nino chances are going to plummet. Most of those years Ben cited were stout La Ninas.

I also dont remember that a warmer than normal WPAC being helpful in triggering El Nino.
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#48 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 20, 2025 11:11 am

WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:PDO is right now up from -2.05 in October to -1.36 in the November data.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G8P6M4TbMAATC7U?format=png&name=medium


I won't be surprised if December comes out even higher at this rate:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_npac.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_change15_npac.png


Anomalies are still pretty warm east of Japan. PDO also historically warms during the winter regardless of its state.
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 22, 2025 12:01 pm

The warm pool is advancing slowly eastward. Niño 3.4 at -0.8C on CPC 12/22/25 update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#50 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Dec 22, 2025 7:56 pm

30 day SOI is currently negative but will flip positive soon due to the IO getting a solid MJO pulse.
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