2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

-NAO will dominate in the next few weeks so SST should warm a bit. We are still far from hurricane season and pattern can always change in the spring. I'd wait until April to comment on SSTs.

[rockice]

After looking everybody's comments and looking at the images on here I don't want to misquote anybody but it sure does look like it's going to be a very quiet 2026?

[Category5Kaiju]

After looking everybody's comments and looking at the images on here I don't want to misquote anybody but it sure does look like it's going to be a very quiet 2026?

It really boils down to how wet Africa will be, how warm the Atlantic will be, and how strong of a +ENSO event we get in the EPAC. We're getting mixed signals at this point, with some models looking like we should see below-average activity and some models favoring somewhat more activity.

And even then, given how recent seasons have behaved, I wouldn't be surprised if 2026 ends up as a below-average season but also features several storms that go on to become very strong systems, like Category 4+. Below-average activity tells us nothing about how strong certain storms will become and where they go.

[TomballEd]

Cliche but it only takes one. If it is a 1997-ish year, while numbers and storm strength will be down, there might be some early season non-tropical origin storms. I remember a very intense constant lightning disturbance passing over Lafayette. Rob Perillo, local Acadiana TV met, mentioned the possibility of TCG from what became Danny. Did a fair amount of damage and damaged/destroyed a lot of cars for the off shore hands whose companies didn't evacuate. I went offshore a couple of weeks after Danny. Met the crew on an ADTI rig. ADTI was a turnkey driller and notoriously cheap. 10 hour boat rides instead of 40 minute helicopter kind of cheap. That was a blown CSU forecast year, modelling was apparently slow in picking up the change of ENSO. I suppose almost 30 years later ENSO forecasts, while perhaps not perfect, are much better.

[chaser1]

My greatest fears regarding next hurricane season rank as follows:
1) Satellite failure as a result of solar (CME) impact, general disrepair or software problems, and exacerbated by further decrease in government funding.
2) Data and software corruption OR government funding issues that directly impact Global forecast models resulting in a degradation of accuracy.
3) Global Climate "Weirding" is confirmed as the first bonafide Cat 6 hurricane actually develops (whatever those SLP & wind peramters might need be LOL).

[Category5Kaiju]

A bit unrelated to 2026 indicators per se, but I can't be the only one who is in disbelief that we're already on to the 2026 season. For instance, I'm sure many of us have very vivid memories of the haywire 2017 season, especially with Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and to think that's literally almost 10 years ago....and the last time we used Greek letters was 6 years ago, and Ian 4 years ago....yeah, time flies.

[cycloneye]

Happy new year to all. The January run from CanSIPS has a more juicy ASO in terms of more humid than the december run and also for ASO, it has very warm sst' s especially in the subtropics.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Happy new year everyone! My early thought's for this year is that I could see a scenario where we end up getting a weak El nino/warm neutral kinda like 2018. I am skeptical of us getting a strong El nino this year, despite the fact that the models all have it right now, given that we just had a strong nino only 3 years ago, and normally we don't get back to back strong ninos, or in the very least, we don't get strong El ninos that are very close in time with each other. If this happens (warm neutral/weak nino), I honestly don't think the season will be inactive. It may very well be similar to last year at least, without the 3 C5s (probably).

[julius davis]

the CANSIPS has been showing the same run since 2024. It's mind boggles my mind how people treat this as if its something different every time.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least dating back to 1995 when the current active era began, it's important to note that only 9 years out of 31 years (1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2023) operationally met the definition of an El Nino. While El Ninos can grow more intense than La Ninas (historically, there has never been a recorded "very-strong" La Nina event while there have been multiple "very-strong" El Nino events) and have a very predictable return interval of, on-average, about 2-5 years, there's no denying that they are not as common as neutral or La Nina events.

Can't remember exactly who, but there was somebody else on Storm2k a while ago who laid this concept out fairly well; basically, it's much easier to get neutral or La Nina conditions than it is to get an El Nino, because more things have to fall in place and go "right" for the atmosphere and the ocean to achieve an El Nino than the other way around. This also is part of the main reason why El Ninos tend to last a year and then die off, while La Ninas oftentimes repeat in back-to-back years.

What my point here is, while early indications point toward some kind of El Nino this upcoming season and while I think a weak or moderate El Nino has a likely chance of occurring, I also wonder if there's a nonzero chance that a failmode happens (kind of like 2003, 2012, 2017, or 2019, where early signs pointed toward an El Nino, which ultimately failed to materialize). If we somehow don't get an El Nino, then that could have some major implications on this season's activity levels, and it could very well exceed some of the more bearish early-season outlooks.

[zzzh]

Happy new year everyone! My early thought's for this year is that I could see a scenario where we end up getting a weak El nino/warm neutral kinda like 2018. I am skeptical of us getting a strong El nino this year, despite the fact that the models all have it right now, given that we just had a strong nino only 3 years ago, and normally we don't get back to back strong ninos, or in the very least, we don't get strong El ninos that are very close in time with each other. If this happens (warm neutral/weak nino), I honestly don't think the season will be inactive. It may very well be similar to last year at least, without the 3 C5s (probably).

I agree that strong Nino is very unlikely, but It's not unheard of getting a moderate Nino 3 years after a strong one. 1896-1899, 1965-1968 and 1991-1994 all had a strong Nino followed by 2 years of weak Nina/neutral then a moderate Nino. Very interestingly though, AMO flipped to the other phase right after those events in 1900, 1970 and 1995.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Happy new year everyone! My early thought's for this year is that I could see a scenario where we end up getting a weak El nino/warm neutral kinda like 2018. I am skeptical of us getting a strong El nino this year, despite the fact that the models all have it right now, given that we just had a strong nino only 3 years ago, and normally we don't get back to back strong ninos, or in the very least, we don't get strong El ninos that are very close in time with each other. If this happens (warm neutral/weak nino), I honestly don't think the season will be inactive. It may very well be similar to last year at least, without the 3 C5s (probably).

I agree that strong Nino is very unlikely, but It's not unheard of getting a moderate Nino 3 years after a strong one. 1896-1899, 1965-1968 and 1991-1994 all had a strong Nino followed by 2 years of weak Nina/neutral then a moderate Nino. Very interestingly though, AMO flipped to the other phase right after those events in 1900, 1970 and 1995.

Interesting, we have been in a +AMO pattern for 30 years now so you'd think soon we're due for it to flip, but the SSTAs dont really look like they're about to flip yet. We'll see...

[Category5Kaiju]

The NMME doesn't have such features, so I went ahead and looked at the most recent CANSIPS and CFS runs of such. Here's what both models predict long-range in terms of average shear zones during the peak months of ASO.

CANSIPS:



CFS:



Interestingly, despite both models predicting a bona-fide El Nino look in the EPAC by the same timeframe, sst-anomaly-wise, they're both predicting lower-than-average wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. There also doesn't seem to be a notable area of higher-than-average wind shear just above the MDR extending to the Lesser Antilles, which would be the infamous indicator of a TUTT. Granted, the CANSIPS is also predicting an extremely warm Atlantic (a la 2023, lol), which may explain why the shear values are so much lower than the CFS; in this sense, I'd have to imagine that the CFS is probably more reasonable than the CANSIPS.

All of this is long-range and subject to change of course. However, at least in this point in time, the generally-warm Atlantic look combined with the idea that shear may not be terribly strong makes me think that unless things drastically change down the line, an El Nino year like 1979, 2002, or 2018 where the Atlantic isn't overall very active but still generates several strong, impactful storms is more likely than a "total-shutdown" El Nino year like the El Nino years of the 80s/90s or 2006, where activity, impacts, and storm strength are significantly down. And, there's no telling if this year will follow the recent trends of generating at least one extremely-high-end Category 4 storm or stronger.

[Teban54]

As discussed in the ENSO thread, there's a good chance of even a moderate or strong El Nino later this year, with 2014 and 2023 mentioned as analogs. The latter go me thinking...

What are the chances of a "2023 repeat" this year in the Atlantic?

In 2023, early-season indicators for NATL weren't too hot, primarily due to the anticipation of an El Nino. But MDR SSTs started skyrocketing around May 2023, prompting forecast agencies to boost their numbers massively by July.

Indeed, the season turned out much more active than an average strong El Nino year. 2023 even had more ACE than 2025.

Another question is whether 2026 would see a more "normal" distribution of activity, especially during peak season. Several recent years (2022, 2024, 2025) had bizarre mid-season shutdowns during what's traditionally the busiest time of the year, and coincidentally they're all La Nina or cool-neutral years. But 2023 is the notable exception with an active MDR after August 20. What would 2026 choose?

[WeatherBoy2000]

As discussed in the ENSO thread, there's a good chance of even a moderate or strong El Nino later this year, with 2014 and 2023 mentioned as analogs. The latter go me thinking...

What are the chances of a "2023 repeat" this year in the Atlantic?

In 2023, early-season indicators for NATL weren't too hot, primarily due to the anticipation of an El Nino. But MDR SSTs started skyrocketing around May 2023, prompting forecast agencies to boost their numbers massively by July.

Indeed, the season turned out much more active than an average strong El Nino year. 2023 even had more ACE than 2025.

Another question is whether 2026 would see a more "normal" distribution of activity, especially during peak season. Several recent years (2022, 2024, 2025) had bizarre mid-season shutdowns during what's traditionally the busiest time of the year, and coincidentally they're all La Nina or cool-neutral years. But 2023 is the notable exception with an active MDR after August 20. What would 2026 choose?

Yeah the Atlantic has definitely behaved strangely over the past few years, I won't be surprised if see more strangeness in the upcoming 2026 season that sets it apart from the typical moderate to strong el nino year (assuming it happens). However, unless there's another rapid warming period like in 2023, I think we'll see a much more typical moderate to strong el nino dynamic (active Pacific, quiet Atlantic).

[mixedDanilo.E]

The NMME doesn't have such features, so I went ahead and looked at the most recent CANSIPS and CFS runs of such. Here's what both models predict long-range in terms of average shear zones during the peak months of ASO.

CANSIPS:
https://i.imgur.com/3uLm8XM.png


CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/s4fCZwZ.png


Interestingly, despite both models predicting a bona-fide El Nino look in the EPAC by the same timeframe, sst-anomaly-wise, they're both predicting lower-than-average wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. There also doesn't seem to be a notable area of higher-than-average wind shear just above the MDR extending to the Lesser Antilles, which would be the infamous indicator of a TUTT. Granted, the CANSIPS is also predicting an extremely warm Atlantic (a la 2023, lol), which may explain why the shear values are so much lower than the CFS; in this sense, I'd have to imagine that the CFS is probably more reasonable than the CANSIPS.

All of this is long-range and subject to change of course. However, at least in this point in time, the generally-warm Atlantic look combined with the idea that shear may not be terribly strong makes me think that unless things drastically change down the line, an El Nino year like 1979, 2002, or 2018 where the Atlantic isn't overall very active but still generates several strong, impactful storms is more likely than a "total-shutdown" El Nino year like the El Nino years of the 80s/90s or 2006, where activity, impacts, and storm strength are significantly down. And, there's no telling if this year will follow the recent trends of generating at least one extremely-high-end Category 4 storm or stronger.

I remember a very similar thing being shown in 2023. Also I checked the ECMWF seasonal forecast for Jan 26 and compared into the Jan 23 run, and interestingly enough they show a warmer Atlantic this year by the time we get to spring and early summer.