2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Remains a potent WWB on the models. Looks like it'll start this week and likely continue until the end of the month.

[cycloneye]

This upcomming WWB means business.


Eric Webb
@webberweather
Good lord.

This Westerly Wind Burst in the Tropical West Pacific late month is so strong on the Euro weeklies it's wrapping the scale

If there was any doubt we weren't getting an El Niño later this year, this just about does it.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2010446761731764416

[cycloneye]

Andy Hazelton with the C35 multi-model.

@AndyHazelton
A solid majority of ensemble members from the C3S multi-model forecasts have a solid El Niño developing by early summer. The forecast looks comparable to or maybe even slightly warmer than the forecast from January 2023, and in reality ENSO verified on the warm side that time. The atmospheric coupling also appears to be well-established by then, with enhanced rising over the Pacific and enhanced shear/TUTT activity across the Atlantic.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2010355273441890480

[cycloneye]

There are still mixed signals on ENSO today as the weekly CPC update is released. Niño 3.4 is more colder than last week at -0.8C and the 30 day SOI index continues very positive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf






On the other hand, the 300 meter depth is warming at a faster pace meaning the WWB is already having an effect on that.

[cycloneye]

Boom!!

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2010733244585505068

[Kingarabian]

Interesting enough this MJO pulse won't be as strong as the ones we saw in 2014 and 2015 that superceded those strong WWBs. So there must be an additional precursor involved.

[Kingarabian]

There are still mixed signals on ENSO today as the weekly CPC update is released. Niño 3.4 is more colder than last week at -0.8C and the 30 day SOI index continues very positive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf


https://i.imgur.com/g6uUWyF.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/sfzFCSP.jpeg

On the other hand, the 300 meter depth is warming at a faster pace meaning the WWB is already having an effect on that.

https://i.imgur.com/5Hvg2v7.jpeg

It'll start tanking in about a week or so but until the extra tropics lock in to +ENSO, expect some volatility.

[Yellow Evan]

SOI isn't the best ENSO indicator with how off equatorial the index is based off of and not sure why this forum talks about it so much in the year of our lord 2026. The fundamentals of ENSO haven't really changed over the last week with a WPAC WWB still modeled, budding +PMM, classic pre-Nino sub-surface, and fairly cool Atlantic and Indian Ocean.

[cycloneye]

The blues keep shrinking.