2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Remains a potent WWB on the models. Looks like it'll start this week and likely continue until the end of the month.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Is the WWB breaking apart? That CPC 75% of Neutral in the January-March timeframe may not happen.

[mixedDanilo.E]

WWB is happening right now but I'll be honest (and the post above me mentions this), but they don't look as strong and as menacing as people were talking about a week or 2 ago. And afterwards, marginal trades return to the EQ pacific. It's definitely gonna take more in order to get a full blown El Nino, even though it's more likely than not going to happen at some point this year. I honestly wonder if some of the models may be slightly over excited about the El Nino right now, especially the euro since it's showing like a strong event, and unless we have a massive WWB next month or March, I'm not sure if that is going to happen right now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Remains a potent WWB on the models. Looks like it'll start this week and likely continue until the end of the month.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Is the WWB breaking apart? That CPC 75% of Neutral in the January-March timeframe may not happen.

Looks like it is. I still think this past WWB was instrumental in helping us depart the cool neutral territory that we were in and will ultimately ease our way into El Nino later on. But I do think some of the predictions from last week and even several weeks ago may have been a tad bit too overzealous in thinking that we would rapidly enter neutral and that a strong El Nino is guaranteed. You need some exceptional coupling and a robust series of WWBs and warming to get remotely close to strong El Nino status (and, hence why in the grand scheme of things, weak or moderate El Ninos are more common than strong or very strong El Ninos).

Let's see how the warming process goes in the coming months and how much they're interrupted by trades or not.

[Kingarabian]

So although this WWB was supposed to be a bit more significant it will still likely impact the subsurface. I would pay close attention to the subsurface and see if warmer anomalies develop. A WWB in late February/March will more than likely trigger an El Nino. Right now almost everything is pointing towards an El Nino.

[cycloneye]

So although this WWB was supposed to be a bit more significant it will still likely impact the subsurface. I would pay close attention to the subsurface and see if warmer anomalies develop. A WWB in late February/March will more than likely trigger an El Nino. Right now almost everything is pointing towards an El Nino.

Is easy to see where things are going in this loop.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2013107440066142389

[mixedDanilo.E]

So although this WWB was supposed to be a bit more significant it will still likely impact the subsurface. I would pay close attention to the subsurface and see if warmer anomalies develop. A WWB in late February/March will more than likely trigger an El Nino. Right now almost everything is pointing towards an El Nino.

Is easy to see where things are going in this loop.

https://i.imgur.com/Q8i1BJg.gif

These next few weeks will be very important in terms of evolution toward an El Nino. If we get these WWB's to be more consistent and long lasting, El nino will probably already begin to develop by late spring/summer, and we'll probably end up with a decently strong El Nino. If not, and instead we get situations like this WWB that happen initially but don't sustain, then we might see the event get delayed, and as a result, we will probably end up with a weak El nino. I think it will also be important to see how warm the Atlantic gets, as according to some the 2026 factors/indicators thread, there is a chance that an Atlantic Nino may form this year, and that tends to stunt a warm ENSO event.

[cycloneye]

For the members who know about this, have a question. The Southern Hemisphere has been very active so far with ACE well above average. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Being very active has an effect on ENSO?

[Dean_175]

For the members who know about this, have a question. The Southern Hemisphere has been very active so far with ACE well above average. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Being very active has an effect on ENSO?

Not a leading indicator, but sometimes a strong WWB can help generate tropical cyclones- sometimes on both sides of the equator. As for an above active season in itself being a harbinger of El Nino: that isn't a thing as far as I am aware. The dynamics at the equator are more important than what happens in other parts of the tropics.

[cycloneye]

The plume of ENSO models of January was updated today and the average mean of the dynamic models have weak El Niño for ASO.