2026 ENSO Updates

[Dean_175]

Question to the members. Is there a possible scenario depending on how strong it gets that the upcomming El Niño will be long in duration around 2 to 3 years? 26-27-28?

Unlikely. Of the recent multi-year Ninos, it was either a weak event or something was off with the normal timing of coupling between atmosphere and ocean. For example, 1986 onset very late in the calendar year. This delayed negative feedback and the event had an unusual secondary peak the following summer. 2014 was weak and didn’t show significant coupling until 2015. 2018/2019 was weak and not very robust. There is nothing abnormal so far that would make me think of a multi-year Nino. I think we would need to see this one become stunted but without significant deterioration of the warm pool.

La Niña is more likely to recur than El Niño. That is one asymmetry in ENSO. La Niña commonly repeats, while El Niño rarely does. El Niño seems to have higher max potential amplitude instead.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

On another note, Latest hovmollers from the GFS indicate strong trade bursts til the end of the month...

GEFS a little quicker to propagate the easterlies away from the dateline than the EPS, although they aren't as potent on the latter. Could slow down short-term progression somewhat, I guess this is kind of like La Niña's last stand. Probably not gonna matter much in the long-term, but we'll see.



Fwiw here's the AI GFS and AIFS ensemble mean, basically with the same idea for each respective suite:

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022320129258692752

[Yellow Evan]

Question to the members. Is there a possible scenario depending on how strong it gets that the upcomming El Niño will be long in duration around 2 to 3 years? 26-27-28?

Need this El Niño to not be strong enough that it erodes any +PMM and the ITCZ doesn’t shift too far south, which would strengthen equatorial trades about a year from now, which would terminate the event, in order for a multi-year El Niño to be possible.

[cycloneye]

Folks, look what is already showing up. Boom!

[cycloneye]

Good message from Dr Levi Cowan.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2022485178338423096



@TropicalTidbits
Looks like a flip from La Niña to El Niño is on the way this upcoming hurricane season. The equatorial Pacific thermocline has deepened over the last 2 months as upper ocean heat anomalies discharge eastward, which should eventually reverse the SST anomaly at the surface in the coming months.

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through changes in average wind shear and convective instability. In recent years, the Atlantic has shown the potential to offset these negative impacts if its own water is warm enough to distort the base state (see 2023). For now, seasonal models don't foresee that this year, with an intense dipole in precipitation anomalies evident in the current NMME forecast for peak hurricane season, indicating a dominant El Niño pattern. A super active hurricane season would be unlikely if this forecast verifies, but that also wouldn't guarantee a small number of storms that strike land.

As always, it's best to be prepared just in case every single hurricane season if you live in an area prone to hurricanes. This can include areas well inland, as we have unfortunately seen in the southeastern U.S. in recent years.