Occluded low in central Mediterranean

[Europa non è lontana]

An occluded low has formed in the central Mediterranean, which may develop tropical characteristics overnight and tomorrow before landfall in Libya.

Satellite:



Phase diagram:



Model runs (ACCESS-G, ICON, ECWMF, ARPEGE, UKMO, GFS at +36):

[Europa non è lontana]

The cyclone appears to have detached from fronts and is completing the transition process now. There appears to be a neutral to warm-core and the system has maintained consistent if shallow convection over the past few hours. SSTs are very marginal, around 18°C, and the system is probably being supported by a cold pool aloft, so I would argue for subtropical classification at the moment.

Satellite image:



Last full ASCAT pass:

[WaveBreaking]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It indeed looks subtropical today, with sustained convection is trying to wrap around the center. The ASCAT pass from morning also showed separated and quite symmetrical central wind filed.

 https://x.com/Zivipotty/status/2033933882219807095