Occluded low in central Mediterranean

[Europa non è lontana]

An occluded low has formed in the central Mediterranean, which may develop tropical characteristics overnight and tomorrow before landfall in Libya.

Satellite:



Phase diagram:



Model runs (ACCESS-G, ICON, ECWMF, ARPEGE, UKMO, GFS at +36):

[Europa non è lontana]

The cyclone appears to have detached from fronts and is completing the transition process now. There appears to be a neutral to warm-core and the system has maintained consistent if shallow convection over the past few hours. SSTs are very marginal, around 18°C, and the system is probably being supported by a cold pool aloft, so I would argue for subtropical classification at the moment.

Satellite image:



Last full ASCAT pass:

[WaveBreaking]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It indeed looks subtropical today, with sustained convection is trying to wrap around the center. The ASCAT pass from morning also showed separated and quite symmetrical central wind filed.

 https://x.com/Zivipotty/status/2033933882219807095

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

From European groups of meteorological services, the South-western group named the cyclone to 'Samuel' a few days ago, when it formed as an extratropical low over the western part of the Mediterranean Sea, which can be used as an "official" name. Additionally, the FU-Berlin gave it to name 'Jolina'.

Daytime satellite animations:

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is transitioning into something worthy of being named.
-Closed LLC
-Convection building close to the core
-Wind field and cloud pattern sports a more tropical structure.

I wouldn't be shocked to see it become tropical tonight into tomorrow if convection can continue to develop over the center. Maybe a banding eye? I'd say 45-50 knts currently but if that develops it could strengthen tropically. I certainly be watching this if I was in one of these countries.