2026 ENSO Updates: BoM announces La Niña has ended

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
If twin tropical cyclones form in the West Pacific in April, 2026 would be in a class with 2015 and 1997 — previous super El Niño events.

In March 2015 (left), Cyclones Pam and Bavi were twins, fueling a major westerly wind burst.

The same thing could happen in 2026 (right).

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2037537628934078851

[mixedDanilo.E]

This is incredible, very much like the WWB we saw in 2015/1997. If this verifies, Strong El Nino here we come.

[dexterlabio]

I saw posts saying that this could be a west-based or Modoki event, but I always thought west-based El Niño events are typically the weak ones (<1.0C). With the WWB signal we are seeing now, I don't think this will be a weak event.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Very interesting information here about the effects from Tropical Cyclones on ENSO as there is a possibility that twin tropical cyclones (one on each side of the equator) may develop if the models are right.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0821.1.xml

[cycloneye]

The plot keeps thickening as the trend toward El Niño continues. The graphic and loop speak for themselves.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, look at the SOI falling fast now.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[cycloneye]

CPC 3/30/26 weekly update has niño 3.4 up to -0.3C at neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

No longer just a forecast, but the stronger anomalies are verifying.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, look at the SOI falling fast now.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://i.imgur.com/SzxN5vc.jpeg

Is almost in crash mode.

[cycloneye]

Triplets?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2038979627419402255

[Hayabusa]

Triplets?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2038979627419402255

Interestingly is that the traditional NWP models like GFS and Euro have weakened the potential of this possible TC in the latest runs while Euro AI and Deepmind continue to show a significant system

[cycloneye]

The first shoe has dropped and is from the BoM of Australia.





https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ni ... s=Overview

[mixedDanilo.E]

The first shoe has dropped and is from the BoM of Australia.

https://i.imgur.com/SNR3rQQ.jpeg

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/archive/20260328//plumes/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr.png

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ni ... s=Overview

I'm not gonna lie to you, even though strong El Nino is looking more likely, I have a hard time believing we will get as as strong as the BoM forecasts, especially by September. What especially makes me want to partially throw this run out is a HUGE jump in the index from March to April. I'm sorry but I do not see that happening.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

New April CanSIPS is a little stronger with the Niño but still stubbornly favors the Central Pacific-based look from prior runs rather than the more canonical east-based flavor the rest of the guidance has. It's been very persistent with this look, but again, it doesn't have much support from the rest of the seasonal guidance.

[Kingarabian]

New April CanSIPS is a little stronger with the Niño but still stubbornly favors the Central Pacific-based look from prior runs rather than the more canonical east-based flavor the rest of the guidance has. It's been very persistent with this look, but again, it doesn't have much support from the rest of the seasonal guidance.
https://i.imgur.com/3ROuj6N.png

Also a neutral to negative PDO.