2026 ENSO Updates

[Ntxw]

Last bit of the surface cold anomalies are dwindling, Nino 3.4 weekly readings should be going up at a much quicker pace going forward as the western and eastern warm pools link up. Another downwelling kelvin wave is setting up shop in the western basin. This is no 2014.





2023 was not even close to this echelon of a Nino.

[Kingarabian]

JMA PDO down to -0.5.

This might be an incorrect interpretation but it seems the reason for the PDO being weakly negative is the stubborn warm SSTs off Japan. If the NE Pacific was as cold as it was in 2023, we're gonna see very negative PDO reading.

Yeah it is.

[cycloneye]

This is insane.

[cycloneye]

Another WWB loading behind the front one. Yikes.

[cycloneye]

What about a 1997 redux? Looking like is very possible seeing the comparison graphics. What do the members think?

[Ntxw]

What about a 1997 redux? Looking like is very possible seeing the comparison graphics. What do the members think?

https://i.imgur.com/zJ1N1IY.jpeg

This one will probably be talked about in the likes of 82, 97, and 15. They all transitioned with slightly different timing but in the end had global altering effects on weather and climates. 2026 should be no different. Most guidance has the nino atmosphere taking over the global rising/sinking motion (walker circulation) like the big ones by June.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045550535399428331

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What about a 1997 redux? Looking like is very possible seeing the comparison graphics. What do the members think?

https://i.imgur.com/zJ1N1IY.jpeg

Eric Webb said something about an event in-between 1997 and 2023 in magnitude. Maybe something like 2015? I could see that.
'

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2045624426847170791

[LarryWx]

Keep in mind that most anomaly maps including subsurface aren’t RONI equivalent.

Yesterday’s RONI equivalent in Nino 3.4 was ~+0.1 though it had risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold.

How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the same date for the other 3?

1982/97: +.0.4

2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others



So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... st9120.txt

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2045907338532364730

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2045907338532364730

Similar to 14. Reason is likely due to the WWBs for the prior years occurring earlier.

97, 2014 and 2015 had different MJO/WWB timing compared to 2026.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 at warm neutral +0.1C and is positive for the first time in more than a year. The official declaration from CPC of El Niño looks closer now, maybe by the may second Thursday of that month's bulletin?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 at warm neutral +0.1C and is positive for the first time in more than a year. The official declaration from CPC of El Niño looks closer now, maybe by the may second Thursday of that month's bulletin?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/cZn1P96.jpeg

Thanks, Luis.
It is no surprise that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2:


08APR2026 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.2
15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6

How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April?

- 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start

- 1997: +0.3

- 1982: +0.3

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... st9120.txt

[Kingarabian]

SOI should drop again in 72 hours. That drop should last to end April. Could see another WWB soon then.

[Ntxw]

MJO will re-emerge over the Pacific Ocean early in May. It along with the growing El Nino will constructively interfere and a new westerly wind burst will happen models are now seeing it and bets are that it will be another big WWB.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
The upcoming "mega El Niño" could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence.

Scientists watching every weather model update are getting "heart palpitations" ❤️

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2046285347664048562

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2046345194522447980

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/spann/status/2046364934359925167

[Steve]

@RyanMaue
The upcoming "mega El Niño" could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence.

Scientists watching every weather model update are getting "heart palpitations" ❤️

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2046285347664048562

Sensationalizing as he is known to do.