NCEP discussion of ENSO shows neutral conditions

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

The equatorial pacific is almost flat in terms of ENSO conditions are concerned.No big warmup is observed in past weeks so there are no signs of el nino to appear.But it is still too early to say how the ENSO factor will be as the 2004 hurricane season gets going but let's look for trends to see if it will remain neutral,weak el nino or la nina appears.

Here are the actual readings of the anomalys in the equatorial pacific at links below.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

[Stormsfury]

Actually, notice the WESTERLY winds across the Equatorial Pacific, and it's NOW across the dateline ... this was the strong KELVIN wave, and the MJO kicking in ... which not in the far distant future COULD help a return to storminess across the US.

Also, that same WEST wind course disrupts the normal trades and the decreases the cold upwelling that's been occurring across the EQ PAC ... there's a possibility that within the next month or two, we begin to see some real signs of the progged El Niño.

SF