Blue colors appear at el nino 1-2 and 3 areas

[cycloneye]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Hummm interesting data of the anomalys at the equatorial pacific that show what appears to be some cooling of the waters at el nino 1-2 area west of southamerica and in part of el nino 3 area too.But maybe those are fluctuations that are going on however there is plenty of time before the season starts to see what kind of ENSO it will be but it looks less likely at this point that a true el nino will materialize even as kelvin waves haved formed in past weeks.

[FLguy]

it would appear as if somewhat of a split is developing in the ENSO regions, with warm water further back to the west in the equatorial PAC (el nino-ish in nature) and cooler SSTA closer to the coast of south america. which is more reminicent of La Nina.

the PDO is currently in a short term warm cycle, so its possible that El Nino conditions will try to make somewhat of a comeback (watch the MJO), though given the fact that the PDO is in the long term cold phase, i dont forsee the potential for development of a moderate or strong El Nino in the coming months which would be able to mitigate atlantic hurricane activity.

we may however see periods where the equatorial PAC warms to the point of borderline weak El Nino conditions, then slip back to neutral, or see a split develop in the ENSO regions before warming abck up again and the process repeats its self again.

also --- a quick note on my thinking for the 2004 season. the ATL basin has been presistently warmer than average over the past year which has been well documented by many. the ATC (atlantic thermohaline circulation) is currently in the long term strong cycle which from a decadal and multi-decadal standpoint favors above average TC development during that period.

we have noticed the other effect of the long-term strong cycle this winter manifested in the strongly negative NAO and presistent north atlantic blocking patterns. this leads me to believe that the ATC will have a boosting effect on the 2004 hurricane season.

now we cross the ATC and atlantic basin SSTA with the QBO and find the QBO in transition from east to west taking place before APR 04 which is another clear boost to the potential for above average activity. the ENSO signal is hashed out above.

as for the east pacific basin ---- below average TC activity in 04.

[cycloneye]

I kind to agree with you about ENSO moving back and forth from neutral to weak el nino and then going back to neutral and if that happens then it wont be a big negative factor for the atlantic hurricane season as we can expect another active season.