Potential for Carribean/Gulf storm increasing...

[HurricaneBill]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Of course not! Only one system is going to become Alex this season.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see if this wave develops or not.

I don't think we'll be seeing Alex right away. Since I first started watching the tropics in 1990, I've only seen four "A" storms form in the Gulf during June.

Tropical Storm Arlene (mid June 1993)
Tropical Storm Alberto (very late June 1994)
Hurricane Allison (early June 1995)
Tropical Storm Allison (early June 2001)

As you can see, only Allison in 1995 reached hurricane status.

Also since 1990, I've seen only 3 "A" storms reach hurricane status. Andrew in 1992, Allison in 1995, and Alberto in 2000.

Except for Allison, those storms were in August.

Usually, the "B" storm seems more likely to reach hurricane status first. I've seen it happen 6 times. Bertha (1990), Bob (1991), Bertha (1996), Bill (1997), Bonnie (1998), Bret (1999).

Of course, which named storm becomes a hurricane first depends on the time of year and weather conditions. But I can guarantee that the first named storm to reach tropical storm status will definitely be Alex.

[Brent]

Hey Brent,
Just your average afternoon showers and T-storms down this way in FWB. Now, if the moisture in the carrib gets drawn northward things could change by late in the weekend. Enjoy your stay!

fwbbreeze

Thanks! Just FWIW, we're staying at Seaspray Condominiums. Very nice place. We stayed at the same place last August. We originally were going to go somewhere else(like the GA/SC Atlantic coast), but we decided against it. We loved our stay last time.

[GalvestonDuck]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Of course not! Only one system is going to become Alex this season.

<snipped>

Of course, which named storm becomes a hurricane first depends on the time of year and weather conditions. But I can guarantee that the first named storm to reach tropical storm status will definitely be Alex.

Hooo boy, you got him there!

[USAwx1]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Of course not! Only one system is going to become Alex this season.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see if this wave develops or not.

I don't think we'll be seeing Alex right away. Since I first started watching the tropics in 1990, I've only seen four "A" storms form in the Gulf during June.

Tropical Storm Arlene (mid June 1993)
Tropical Storm Alberto (very late June 1994)
Hurricane Allison (early June 1995)
Tropical Storm Allison (early June 2001)

As you can see, only Allison in 1995 reached hurricane status.

Also since 1990, I've seen only 3 "A" storms reach hurricane status. Andrew in 1992, Allison in 1995, and Alberto in 2000.

Except for Allison, those storms were in August.

Usually, the "B" storm seems more likely to reach hurricane status first. I've seen it happen 6 times. Bertha (1990), Bob (1991), Bertha (1996), Bill (1997), Bonnie (1998), Bret (1999).

Of course, which named storm becomes a hurricane first depends on the time of year and weather conditions. But I can guarantee that the first named storm to reach tropical storm status will definitely be Alex.

heh no kidding -- its NOT rocket science, and you know what i mean.

[Matthew5]

There appears to be a low level cirualtion form at around 17.5 north/86.5 west slowly pulling off to the northwest. It appears to have developed some what? But we will have to see

[KatDaddy]

Nothing at the surface currently. You can easily see the low level flow from E to W across the Caribbean Sea.

The upper level and mid level circulation is trying to reach the surface but has a very long way to go. With shearing in place it be nearly impossible for a surface reflection to occur. It is however a nicely formed TUTT but rather harmless unless shear weakens

[Matthew5]

Yes it maybe is not at the surface yet, but with no quickscat data at the time. That makes it hard to tell what is at the surface. But a few years ago a system that moved into the Gulf of Mexico became the H storm from a upper level, wave like system. So it is really that time of year, in plus it has happen before.

[ColdFront77]

Yes it maybe is not at the surface yet, but with no quickscat data at the time. That makes it hard to tell what is at the surface. But a few years ago a system that moved into the Gulf of Mexico became the H storm from a upper level, wave like system. So it is really that time of year, in plus it has happen before.

The high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere I mentioned in the "Corpus Christi thread" does fall into place nicely... there has been mention of the upper high in the Gulf and there is a surface high nearby, hence there (basically) has to be a high in the mid levels.