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WTIO21 PGTW 111900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 111851ZJUN2004//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N5 66.8E0 TO 18.5N4 64.1E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 111800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N6 66.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6N4
67.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N6 66.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST OF BOMBAY, INDIA. RECENT QUICKSCAT DATA REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. RECENT MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LLCC IS
NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121900Z3.//