The squadron will have work= Plan of the day

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather800/recon.htm

Starting at 2:00 PM EDT or 18:00 UTC on sunday if nessessary.

[zoeyann]

what time is that central

[cycloneye]

1:00 PM CDT.

[zoeyann]

thanks. can't wait to see what they find

[PTrackerLA]

And the drum roll begins for Alex!

[Wnghs2007]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 13/1800Z A. 14/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 13/1600Z C. 14/0500Z
D. 27N 94W D. 28N 90W
E. 13/1700Z-14/0100Z E. 14/0500Z-1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

Isnt that funny how 1 says invest and then the other says cyclone

[senorpepr]

Isnt that funny how 1 says invest and then the other says cyclone

That's standard operating procedure.

[Brent]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's cancelled, there's no evidence of an LLCC. ZERO, NADA.

[Anonymous]

This is still producing convection by divergence and nothing else. The upper low to the west is helping that, but it's not in a favorable position for a surface low to form. Once it moves into the BOC as the TPC already alluded to...then conditions will be a little more conducive for a surface low to develop and a warm-core transition to occur. BUT neither will happen in an instant...it'll take time to "get used" to generating its own convection without the support of any other features. Unfortunately for the disturbance, it's not going to have the time to adapt to that and gradually become warm-core and intensify because...you guessed it...the shortwave trough will enter the region and it'll be shear galore. Don't see it working out.

[ColdFront77]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's cancelled, there's no evidence of an LLCC. ZERO, NADA.

There isn't now, could be with time of course... they have to schedule a flight in order for it to actually go up if need be.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's cancelled, there's no evidence of an LLCC. ZERO, NADA.

All I can say is you obviously have not been tracking tropical systems for long time because if you had you wouldn't make a statement like that.
In the tropics things can changed RAPIDLY, just ask the people who suffered through Alison.

[Wnghs2007]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's cancelled, there's no evidence of an LLCC. ZERO, NADA.

Um. Wrongo.

FXUS62 KEYW 121421
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING REVEALED DEEP-LAYER GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...A CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED DOWNWARD...AND NOW HAS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE[/b. RECENT GOES-12
INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
WEST OF MERIDA...MEXICO...NORTHEAST OF THE [b]SURFACE LOW. ALSO...
DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE CELL COVERAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLY
STRATIFIED AIR MASS OVER THE KEYS...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DESPITE THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SHOWING ONLY AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF THICK MID/UPPER CLOUD DECKS.

.AFTERNOON FORECASTS...
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN QUITE LIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10KT MOST
PLACES. THEREFORE...FIRST PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LOWERED A FEW KNOTS.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...DUE TO NORTHWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO
THICK MID/UPPER CLOUD DECKS.

&&
.MARINE...
WINDS MAY EVEN SLACKEN A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE GETS PINCHED BY A PENINSULAR HEAT TROUGH.

&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KEYW AND KMTH
TERMINALS...AS WELL AS THE KMIA-KEYW AIR ROUTE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...AND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....L. KASPER

[Guest]

Cant wait for Aug & Sept to arrive so that the real action can start because I just cant get hyped up for this mess that everyone is goin crazy about.

[PTrackerLA]

Cant wait for Aug & Sept to arrive so that the real action can start because I just cant get hyped up for this mess that everyone is goin crazy about.

You would care if you lived along the gulf, this is the first system of the season that has a real potential to develop.

[lilbump3000]

Looking at it right now i say theres is a very high chance that this system will develop into something. Maybe atleast a weak tropical storm.

[Brent]

Talk about contradictions... some NWS offices say no evidence of a surface low, as does the NHC, but some say they see one.



I understand things can change rapidly, but I was saying as of now I don't see much reason to go out there.

[Guest]

Cant wait for Aug & Sept to arrive so that the real action can start because I just cant get hyped up for this mess that everyone is goin crazy about.

You would care if you lived along the gulf, this is the first system of the season that has a real potential to develop.

If this system was directly east of me moving west I still would not be very concerned other than for rain which is something I have seen before many times.I have been through enough tropical weather & have tracked enough duds to know when to say when.

Its a weak area of low pressure & will continue to remain weak no matter how much we hope it develops.

Look at this mess

If it looked like this then you could say it has some potential & worth some of the attention


People relax the sky is not falling.