Weak Broad Low Level Circulation Forms in Gulf

[Wnghs2007]

239
ABNT20 KNHC 122121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK AND BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. IF NECESSARY...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[senorpepr]

Key word is broad.

[lilbump3000]

Well atleast its sometime type of low level circulation.

[senorpepr]

Of course. I'm still not overly impressed, but it's in the right direction. It will need to get it's act together quickly.

[HURAKAN]

Well at least its sometime type of low level circulation.

Exatly, for the last few days we have been waiting for the formation of a low level circulation and now we have it. Now the possible formation of a tropical cyclone is closer than ever.

Sandy Delgado

[Brent]

Of course. I'm still not overly impressed, but it's in the right direction. It will need to get it's act together quickly.

I agree. I still don't see this, IF it develops, being anything more than a TD or weak TS.

[Rainband]

it will be a lopsided whatever if it is a whatever

[Josephine96]

It needs to organize a little better to have any chance of developing..

Glad to hear the NHC gives it at least slight promise though lol

[wxman57]

I agree, Brent, at most a sheared TD or MAYBE a weak TS. Landfall will be on Monday, so it won't have much time to develop. And wind shear will be a factor as well.

The GFS is out to lunch on this one. There's an LLC beginning to form near 23.2N/92.7W. 700mb flow is steering th system NW not NE. I think that this will more likely than not become TD1 tomorrow afternoon when the recon finishes its investigation. Landfall along the mid to upper TX coast on Monday is likely, but all heavy squalls will be displaced well to the east of the center to as far east as MS/AL. Here's the latest image. The apparent weak LLC is west of the convection:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/one.gif">

[Brent]

We're leaving for Fort Walton Beach, FL in the morning and will be there through Wednesday. What do you expect there? Mobile NWS has Likely Rain chances Sunday Night-Tuesday.

[senorpepr]

I also agree. This system is running out of time and has several battles. If things stay in this direction... it MAY be possible for a depression to form. I'm still leaning towards no development, but it's worth watching.

[PTrackerLA]

TS Frances and TS Allison both made landfall in the upper Texas coasts and were poorly organized lopsided systems but there were major flooding problems in Louisiana from both of these. Looks like a wet start to the week and possibly breezy from TD force winds .

[senorpepr]

I agree... this looks like a potential heavy rain maker for the Gulf Coast.

[hurricanemike]

Looks like Texas is under the gun and not in FL where they could use the rain!!

[Wnghs2007]

And offcours Georgia gets screwed out of badly needed drought relief again. As this thing turns and floods out texas and Louisiana.

[Guest]

Anyone paying attention at all to whats approaching from the west into western/central TX? Look at any Sats and you will see what i am talking about!

Sorry but if anything that will tend to push this further east before it has any chance to reach the TX coast IMO. LA coast imo is where this will end up as a TS At best. Either way it still has a bit to over come and as most everyone agrees on the rains/active weather from this will be found mainly on the east side of this system probably from LA east to the FL Panhandle.

[wxman57]

Anyone paying attention at all to whats approaching from the west into western/central TX? Look at any Sats and you will see what i am talking about!

Sorry but if anything that will tend to push this further east before it has any chance to reach the TX coast IMO. LA coast imo is where this will end up as a TS At best. Either way it still has a bit to over come and as most everyone agrees on the rains/active weather from this will be found mainly on the east side of this system probably from LA east to the FL Panhandle.

But below 500mb flow is, and will be, from the southeast. That would take at least the LLC NW toward Texas. Latest satellite indicates a near due west movement of the lower level swirl. It's near 23.4N/93.4W as of 6pm. However, I agree that the convection will be sheared off to the east and move inland into the upper TX coast to MS/AL.