No TD in the Gulf Today, it Appears

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 7:27 am

Just a big disorganized mess out there now. So far, thunderstorms haven't persisted in any one area for more than about 6 hours. It's hard to develop and/or maintain any LLC with no persistent convection. I plotted the sfc obs from across the Gulf overnight and don't see anything significant out there - mostly SE winds. There may still be a weak swirl that'll appear as the sun gets higher and the visible imagery comes in, but almost certainly not enough to call a depression if recon heads out there at all.

Looks like I get to play today!

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:00 am

bumber ! Too bad nothing organized last night. Hopefully we'll at least get some heavy rains out of this.

#3 Postby **tracyswfla** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:02 am

Our local met just teased that there is something brewing in the Tropics.... we shall see.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:10 am

tracyswfla wrote:Our local met just teased that there is something brewing in the Tropics.... we shall see.

Oh, it's "brewing", it just won't likely be ready today. :wink:

#5 Postby **tracyswfla** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:12 am

They just like to get people excited. People are probably on their way to Home Depot to get supplies!!!!!!!!!!!

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:16 am

Now that we have a few visible loops, I can see that weak swirl up near 24N/95.5W. That's the LLC we saw yesterday. It's WELL removed from any convection and won't likely be the focus of any development. No sign of an LLC where the NHC initiated that test message. So the model results there will be bogus. If this is going to develop, it'll be farther east in/near some persistent convection - something we haven't seen yet.

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:22 am

Yep, I saw the swirl on SW before the visable came out and it's long gone..

Qscat show alot of work needs to be done for the LLC to reform in the eastern gulf. Patients and Persistance..as usual.. Enjoy the Day! 8-)

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:28 am

Hopefully we can get a new LLC NE of Yucatan...I see some strong winds in that area--they just all easterly... only time will tell.

Scott_inVA · #9 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:32 am

wxman57 wrote:Now that we have a few visible loops, I can see that weak swirl up near 24N/95.5W. That's the LLC we saw yesterday. It's WELL removed from any convection and won't likely be the focus of any development. No sign of an LLC where the NHC initiated that test message. So the model results there will be bogus. If this is going to develop, it'll be farther east in/near some persistent convection - something we haven't seen yet.

Good morning,

Appears ATTM (9:30A EDT) very slight rotation continues west of 95° with convectionn well east. Interesting the 6Z initializtion (though apparantly east of the Low) continued shifting west. I'd doubt any convection now over the YP will make it that far north west.

Yes, if this develops into anything, it will not be at or west of 95°

Scott

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:36 am

agree wxman, don't see any persistant convection for now. If something is to develop it has to start taking shape by late today or tonight. Still not ready to throw in the towel on the NE Yucatan area just yet. But if a TC is going to form worth anything, that would be the most suitable area for development at this stage.

PTPatrick · #11 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 8:53 am

I think we will probably not see a true tropical depression or storm out of this...but I do think we will see a pretty big sub tropical system with gales and heavy rain, tornados and maybe even a small surge(all it takes is on shore flow)...I will leave the naming and tracking to the NHC...meanwhile I am going to bring my garbage cans in (one hit my car during the windstorm we had here in pascagoula a couple weeks back)

#12 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:24 am

tracyswfla wrote:Our local met just teased that there is something brewing in the Tropics.... we shall see.

you must have been watching channel 7 in miami...a thunderstorm in the gulf is enough for "tropical trouble" story on channel 7

#13 Postby **tracyswfla** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:28 am

No, it was channel 2 in Ft. Myers.

jlauderdal wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:Our local met just teased that there is something brewing in the Tropics.... we shall see.

you must have been watching channel 7 in miami...a thunderstorm in the gulf is enough for "tropical trouble" story on channel 7

PTrackerLA · #14 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:28 am

Don't know what y'all are looking about but I see rotation due south of Louisiana and some convection (although not that heavy) has been developing in that same area for awhile now. If anything forms it will be here, not near the Yucatan. The stuff off the Yucatan appears to be linear in nature, possibly a well displaced "feeder band" as which usually occurs in disorganized systems in the gulf.

#15 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:06 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Don't know what y'all are looking about but I see rotation due south of Louisiana and some convection (although not that heavy) has been developing in that same area for awhile now. If anything forms it will be here, not near the Yucatan. The stuff off the Yucatan appears to be linear in nature, possibly a well displaced "feeder band" as which usually occurs in disorganized systems in the gulf.

There's a weak circulation aloft near 24N/87.5W, but ship and buoy reports in the area show rock-steady SE winds at 15kts. Also, pressure at the nearest buoy just north of that area has risen 2mb in the past 3 hours. There's nothing developing there.

No TD in the Gulf Today, it Appears

No TD in the Gulf Today, it Appears

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