Subtropical system?

Stormchaser16 · #1 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 6:25 am

At about 36 Hrs the GFS spins up something in the tropical Atlantic and quickly shoots it NNE, but it definately wants to develop something there.......

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

Stormchaser16 · #2 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 6:28 am

Actually most of the tropical models are showing something there, some more aggressive then others.......

The UKmet is the most aggressive (surprise)....
And the CMC seems least aggressive with the feature

The Dark Knight · #3 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 6:52 am

Finally, some possible action...

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:18 am

That is more than one model forecasting this and water temps in that area are marginal... http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html Something could happen there.

Stormchaser16 · #5 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 8:04 am

Yes, all the models that i have seen develop SOMETHING out there, some develop it a little further south though (Ukmet) and thus they are the stronger models with the system. The CMC develops a weak but closed low further north quickly taking it NNE. Nonetheless all the tropical models seem to be hinting at SOME possible action within 36-48 Hrs. Definately something to keep an eye on!

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:07 am

Is it from the mess off the coast this morning?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:40 am

Did I miss a memo or something?

1) When did 40N become the "tropics"?

2) When did the UKMET, CMC, and AVN become "tropical" models?

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 11:10 am

Derecho wrote:Did I miss a memo or something?

1) When did 40N become the "tropics"?

2) When did the UKMET, CMC, and AVN become "tropical" models?

Last Week didnt you hear..LOL.... :lol:

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:07 pm

1) When did 40N become the "tropics"?

2) When did the UKMET, CMC, and AVN become "tropical" models?

I give up.. When?

hurricanefloyd5 · #10 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:56 pm

tropical depression#1/storm alex will form in the atlantic in 36 to 48 hrs?????????????

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 3:23 pm

That is a <b>NON TROPICAL</b> cyclone being spun up by the models

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 3:29 pm

There was any specific mention that 40°N was considered the tropics or the UKMET, CMC, and AVN were tropical models.

mf_dolphin · #13 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:07 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:Actually most of the tropical models are showing something there, some more aggressive then others.......

The UKmet is the most aggressive (surprise)....
And the CMC seems least aggressive with the feature

Tom this implies that the UKMET and CMC are tropical models. Maybe it wasn't intend to read that way. :-)

Derecho · #14 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:31 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:There was any specific mention that 40°N was considered the tropics or the UKMET, CMC, and AVN were tropical models.

The feature being mentioned formed at about 40N on the model runs before the original posts, and it was described as "coming out of the tropics."

Basically, it's your routine shortwave-induced low by the jetstream, the sort of thing you see hundreds of times a year. It's not even remotely subtropical on the models, much less tropical.

ColdFront77 · #15 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:33 pm

Exactly right, Derecho. Too bad my taking part in the discussion came out wrong (again). Sorry.

I hope you aren't taking me the wrong way. I feel that you think I don't understand as much as you think I know with things we have discussed in the past.

Subtropical system?

Subtropical system?

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