GFS at 12Z

[hurricanetrack]

The 12Z GFS shows one or two systems closing off from time to time moving generally WNW and towards the Greater Antilles and the SE Bahamas. What, to me, is interesting about this is the steering pattern. There is no evidence whatsoever of re-curvature. So the bottom line is that IF something gets going, weak, strong or somewhere in between, it will likely head towards some land mass- no one knows where for sure, but the steering pattern certainly suggests that we all pay close attention.

[hurricanefloyd5]

whqt do you mean? think it will become t.s.alex or a weak hurricane and head for south or central florida???????????????

[Steve H.]

Don't get excited folks, we don't even have a depression yet and its 2000+ miles away But, the GFS is showing development of both systems, and ignore the strength, since if they close off strengthening will not be the issue when they pass 50W in the middle of summer. Seems convection is building near the invest and center is SW of where its been thought to be. No O-town isn't in trouble yet. Check back in a couple of weeks!!

[MWatkins]

I'd agree that if something develops it will come west for a long time for a couple of reasons...

1. It will likely remain relatively weak...leaving it in a shallow steering flow until at least 50 W

2. A strong 588DM mean-layer (500MB) ridge will be in place for most of the mid to extended period across all of the Atlantic. The mid-atlantic ridge will break down for a short time...but by day 10 it should be back in business. The net effect would be a slowdown in forward motion...but no real big turns.

The GFS really likes the wave that will come off the africian coast in 24 hours or so. could be an interesting week indeed.

MW

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess we will have to wait and see!