No rain? Pacific typhoons to blame.

[senorpepr]

Pune, July 5: WONDERING why the much-appreciated ‘early and plentiful’ monsoon went AWOL (absent without official leave) in the last week of June after covering three-fourths of the country in the first three weeks? Here’s a possible attribute.

According to India Meteorology Department’s (IMD) Deputy Director-General, Meteorology (Weather Forecasting) N Jayanthi, two Pacific typhoons which raged in the second half of June ‘‘drew a lot from the monsoon system prevalent here.’’ That’s one of the reasons the ‘on-course’ monsoon was derailed.

‘‘The typhoons moved in a south-easterly direction drawing away the monsoon system. Had they taken a westerly passage, there would have been more rain for the subcontinent. Now the typhoons have disintegrated and the monsoon is back,’’ said Jayanthi. Wait, there’s more. The monsoon was in a ‘‘revival phase’’ and the prospects ‘‘looked good, although the monsoon’s advance was rather weak.’’

Though the rainfall this year till June end is in negative (-2 per cent) compared to the figures for end-June 2003 (+5 per cent), not too much should be read into a ‘‘week’s break,’’ assured Jayanthi. ‘‘If the hiatus in rainfall had been two weeks or more, then it could be a problem for the farmers. Nothing is lost, but July is very important,’’ she said.

Another reason for the dry spell is that atmospheric circulation was not maintained. ‘‘Monsoons are nothing but huge land-sea breeze effect from the southern hemisphere to India. The offshore troughs (low pressure systems) are not strong enough, but the rains in July in parts of North India is a positive factor. Now rains can be expected for the West Coast, Central and Northwest India,’’ Jayanthi said.

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