Will 97L be Alex,TD or not develops?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:58 am

Close call because of dry air in eastern caribbean sea and moving quickly but if you ask me I say a Td may be the most it may get but as we know the tropics offer surprises so we will see.

#2 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:15 am

Someone else posted this in another thread:

CARIBBEAN...
A NARROW/WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM PUERTO RICO WSW TO A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N86W. THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE AIDING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE STRONGEST BEING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
64W-85W LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RETURNING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE S MIGRATION OF
THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS CLOSE TO
AUGUST.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:19 am

I do think this wave actually has potential to gain tropical storm status. it has at least a favorable chance unlike the others.

#4 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:09 am

I think it will reach TD strength, but not much more, at least in the next couple of days. TD strength isn't out of the question, but I have a feeling that it will be another one of those TDs that are forecasted to become hurricanes, but die before they can (TD 6, 9, 14 from last year!). Just a gut feeling, though I would love to see a Tropical Storm...

#5 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:13 am

I'm going to go out on a limb and say a tropical storm in two days. No scientific data or reasoning to back that up, just female intuition.

Stormchaser16 · #6 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:09 am

Not sure If im reading this incorrectly..... or if there is a different map I should be looking at...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullwv.html

But that WV imagery doesnt look half bad to me

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:16 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:Not sure If im reading this incorrectly..... or if there is a different map I should be looking at...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullwv.html

But that WV imagery doesnt look half bad to me

This closer view a bit more detailed with dry air in the Caribbean, but the wave itself, not bad ... large cutoff ULL well to the north of it ...

Stormchaser16 · #8 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:18 am

Ahhhhhhh ok, thanks for the image, the one that I was using was a bit deceptive.......

With this said I would say that the Invest does NOT become a TD(at least for the next few days).... moving too fast, and too much dry air

#9 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:34 am

I say no development in the near future. Not that I know much or anything... conditions just don't look all that favorable, especially for a T.S. ! Possible a TD, but that is even stretching it IMHO.

We shall see...

therock1811 · #10 Postby **therock1811** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:24 pm

It's got TS written all over it!

kevin · #11 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:27 pm

I voted that it will only become a tropical depression.

Opal storm · #12 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:45 pm

I think it will become a T.D,then weaken down to a disturbence.Then become a T.D and/or become a T.S in the Caribbean.

Will 97L be Alex,TD or not develops?

Wil 97L become Alex,a TD or will not develop?

Will 97L be Alex,TD or not develops?

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