Is this true?

[tallbunch]

I live/on Hilton Head Island. There has not been a hurricane here in decades. I was told that the chances of a hurricane/storm is slight. Very slight because we are so far inland unlike NC who sticks out. It seems like when one is approaching, it blows directly north. Then North East.

[vbhoutex]

I wouldn't bet the house on it. You are in an area that could easily be hit, but as you state the tropical cyclones do tend to be curving back towards the N when they are in your area and this does seem to give NC a better chance at a landfall since indeed it does "stick out".

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm......

[Stormsfury]

I live/on Hilton Head Island. There has not been a hurricane here in decades. I was told that the chances of a hurricane/storm is slight. Very slight because we are so far inland unlike NC who sticks out. It seems like when one is approaching, it blows directly north. Then North East.

Yes, the chances of a direct strike on the South Carolina, and Georgia are climatologically lower than North Carolina or Florida for the reasons that you mentioned, however, there's no absolutes in this numbers game, and storms have hit us before and they will eventually hit us again, whether it's this year, or 100 years from now ... they will strike.

Two clear cut reasons ...

The South Carolina, and Georgia coastlines concave inward and most of the time are in a recurvature state around the periphery of the Bermuda High/Subtropical Ridge ... during Hugo, the ridge was displaced farther west and much, much stronger than usual (the ridge strength was 594DM) along with that, a large upper low cutoff and moved westward, forcing Hugo along the path of least resistance ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... ttern.html

[USAwx1]

That was a case of excellent timing and perfect Luck to just have a cutoff upper low retrograding to a position over LA and the West ATL ridge stationed off the MA coast to drive the system into the SE.

A few weeks ago the data was indicating a similar situation WRT the position of the west atlantic ridge (which SOME of the data actually built inland over the VA and NC), however most models DONT have that scenario any longer and are back to the trough in the EUS.

[Stormsfury]

That was a case of excellent timing and perfect Luck to just have a cutoff upper low retrograding to a position over LA and the West ATL ridge stationed off the MA coast to drive the system into the SE.

A few weeks ago the data was indicating a similar situation WRT the position of the west atlantic ridge (which SOME of the data actually built inland over the VA and NC), however most models DONT have that scenario any longer and are back to the trough in the EUS.

Yep, but ... let's watch to see if Alex is any indication of the "hurricane corridor" that sets up this year ...

Interestingly enough, it APPEARS that the 00z ECMWF wants to track 91L to a position SE of Charleston on Day 7...

SF

[Brent]

As others mentioned, the chances are much lower, BUT, there is that possiblity. Under certain conditions, a hurricane could move WNW or NW and directly impacting Savannah and put you in the Eastern eyewall. Not good in that situation since Hilton Head is completely surrounded by water and is low-lying.

It will happen one day.

[Stormsfury]

As others mentioned, the chances are much lower, BUT, there is that possiblity. Under certain conditions, a hurricane could move WNW or NW and directly impacting Savannah and put you in the Eastern eyewall. Not good in that situation since Hilton Head is completely surrounded by water and is low-lying.

It will happen one day.

The last major hurricane that struck the Georgia coastline was back in 1898 ... since then, it's been 106 years and counting since a major hurricane came-a-calling on the Georgia coastline ...

One of the dealiest storms hit Savannah, GA in 1893 (called the Sea Islands Hurricane) in which 2,000 people were drowned, a lot of them coming from the Charleston area when a 13½ storm surge washed over the Battery Wall...also note, the amount of activity that hit South Carolina that year ... there was another major hurricane which struck 6 weeks later just east of Charleston on the morning of October 13th, 1893.

[USAwx1]

That was a case of excellent timing and perfect Luck to just have a cutoff upper low retrograding to a position over LA and the West ATL ridge stationed off the MA coast to drive the system into the SE.

A few weeks ago the data was indicating a similar situation WRT the position of the west atlantic ridge (which SOME of the data actually built inland over the VA and NC), however most models DONT have that scenario any longer and are back to the trough in the EUS.

Yep, but ... let's watch to see if Alex is any indication of the "hurricane corridor" that sets up this year ...

Interestingly enough, it APPEARS that the 00z ECMWF wants to track 91L to a position SE of Charleston on Day 7...

SF

The position of the ridge will be critical. But thats several days down the road.

[weatherfan]

It will diffentey be interisting over the next few months.As said before even those this pattern this summer has feature the trough rige trough type of pattern.One sould not think it accually mean clear the alarms bells.Because it is diffentey possable that timing may work out on if the trough lifts out or digs in Ohio Vally then the east coast and parts of the southeast and part of the middle Alantic could get hit.So its not out of the question at all.