Fighting The Shear?

[chadtm80]

IR LOOP http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


VIS LOOP http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[cycloneye]

Not yet chad shear is still there but it is fighting very hard and if shear relaxes a little it can develop.

[cycloneye]

07/1145 UTC 22.1N 53.3W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

This mornings dvorak are the same 1.5=25 kts meaning it still has a well defined low with 25 kts.

[rainstorm]

if it turns ne and is no longer moving into the shear it may develop, but well east of bermuda, and north of 25n. north of 25 may be the favorable area this year. not as much shear

[chadtm80]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Aquawind]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Wow 92L goes from a micro blip to mega..pretty quick..and the trough in the east coast ..more mega..

[Weatherboy1]

Despite some significant hurdles, 92 has held together for several days. This low is a fighter, that's for sure! Now, the question is, where will it go? Looking at that mega-trough in the east, the CIMSS steering maps, and other factors, it sure looks like a fish to me. Can anyone tell me otherwise? I know a couple of the BAM models want to hook this thing back W and I'm wondering if that's because this trough is going to lift up and out, allowing a ridge to build back in. Sounds unlikely to me given the system's already-high latitude, but I thought I'd ask the question. My sense is, IF the trough were to lift out, the shear would lessen and this thing could actually get going.

[Aquawind]

Pretty vigorous spin alrighty..Sure looking fishy on the link above and the trough/front looks like it is still moving ESE..chances are slim at the speed and direction it is going right now....the lift out is a big IF..

[*StOrmsPr*]

WTNT21 KNGU 071350
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 071347Z AUG 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.0N5 53.0W8 TO 27.2N1 62.0W8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 081400Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.0N5 53.0W8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 081350Z7.//

[*StOrmsPr*]

IR LOOP http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


VIS LOOP http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

11:30 Outlook
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1091 ... XT.html.en

ABNT20 KNHC 071507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED 625 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[rainstorm]

lyons just said its a wave and the pressures there are 1020 mb

[rbaker]

92l has a poor chance of development right now, which was the demise of 91L, (td2), plus this one is way higher lat 25n doubt if it's going to survive shear, and/or get through all that trough area ahead. Chances of development if moving n or ne better. Chances of getting to the us 10 pct.