QS......94L 40 kts, 95L really tight circ....

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Derecho
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QS......94L 40 kts, 95L really tight circ....

#1 Postby Derecho » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:38 am

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?541,229

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?502,226

There's one uncontaminated 40kt wind barb for 94L.....a bit further N on QS than the model inits. Like I've said, I suspect a high likelyhood of recurvature there.

95L is an EXCEEDINGLY dangerous system. 8.4 N.

Were it not for a US landfall today we'd have Danielle and TD5 by 11AM, most likely.
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#2 Postby wx247 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:40 am

I agree... things are very busy. How far is 95L from the islands??? Shouldn't they be worried about it since they have that responsibility to the islands?
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:41 am

Yeower..Busy Busy Prime Time..Friday the 13th!!!! :eek:
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#4 Postby stormchazer » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:42 am

I admit...I have Charley on my mind. Interesting what is going on in the Atlantic. We are likely to have two more systems to watch this weekend.
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#5 Postby Derecho » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:44 am

95L is only moving at 10 kts; 3 days to the Islands.

Definitely will enter the Carib, ends up south of Haiti in 5 days. 81 kts on SHIPS.
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#6 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:45 am

95L sounds like a repeat of Charley. :(
Last edited by Brent on Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:48 am

Derecho wrote:95L is only moving at 10 kts; 3 days to the Islands.

Definitely will enter the Carib, ends up south of Haiti in 5 days. 81 kts on SHIPS.


Thanks. The NHC will be on it before long I am sure, even though their main concern is Charley right now.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:50 am

Advisories on 94L will begin sometime later today ...
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#9 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am

wx247 wrote:
Derecho wrote:95L is only moving at 10 kts; 3 days to the Islands.

Definitely will enter the Carib, ends up south of Haiti in 5 days. 81 kts on SHIPS.


Thanks. The NHC will be on it before long I am sure, even though their main concern is Charley right now.


They are on it. Roland Steadham asked Max about it last night on Miami TV and Max was talking about 94 and 95 and the structure of both systems. I am sure he would have continued on but Roland cut him off. This is the Super Bowl of weather for the NHC.
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94L, 95L

#10 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:46 am

Hi everyone. DERECHO wrote:
_____"There's one uncontaminated 40kt wind barb for 94L.....a bit further N on QS than the model inits. Like I've said, I suspect a high likelyhood of recurvature there."____.

When you say "recurvature", are you talking about going north?.. thanks!
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Re: 94L, 95L

#11 Postby BayouVenteux » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:53 am

Fego wrote:When you say "recurvature", are you talking about going north?.. thanks!
I think he is...as in an early recurve out in the ATL. A general rule of thumb is that systems that strengthen early and farther east tend to recurve early as well.
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94L

#12 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:06 am

Thanks, look at this 6am stament from NWS San Juan, Puerto Rico:

"The following wave which has exited africa during the past 36 hours
could very well become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24
hours ... and global models also like this system. many models pull
this developed wave to the wnw then nw and into the central
atlantic ... but ... the trend over the past few days has been farther
and farther west before pulling nw. this too will be monitored.
With three tropical systems developing already this month ... and
potentially two more during the next few days ... it goes without
saying that the season could become very active as we approach the
peak of the season. local interests are strongly urged to revisit
your hurricane mitigation plans .
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