11pm TD 7-30 mph winds, 1012 mb pressure

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeastern U.S.
Coast from Surf City North Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach
Florida.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 78.0 west or about
155 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

The depression is drifting slowly southward. A continued slow
motion with a turn toward the west is expected on Saturday. This
motion is expected to bring the depression closer to the southeast
U.S. Coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along
the track of the depression.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.3 N... 78.0 W. Movement
toward...south near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

satellite Dvorak intensity estimates and peripheral surface
observations suggest that the highest winds remain near 25 kt.
However the cloud pattern is rather symmetric with some banding and
a lately increasing but not too well organized area of deep
convection. With low vertical shear and warm SSTs...the SHIPS and
GFDL models call for modest strengthening. The official forecast
is for the winds to increase to 40 kt in 36 hours...after which the
system is forecast to move inland. This forecast is a little lower
than the SHIPS model which forecasts the winds to 52 kt before
landfall and a little higher than the GFDL model.
The circulation center is not well defined on satellite imagery or
on the Charleston or Wilmington radars. The initial motion
estimate at 00z is an uncertain 150/02 and an uncertain 180/02 at
03z. The global track models are in fairly good agreement about a
continued very slow motion for a day or two while the system
gradually turns westward to northward to northeastward in
conjunction with an approaching short wave trough in the
westerlies. An acceleration northeastward is indicated after 48
hours. The official track forecast is in general similar to the
previous advisory...except that the landfall timing is a little
slower and slightly further north.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0300z 31.3n 78.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 31.2n 78.3w 30 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 31.6n 78.9w 35 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 32.7n 79.3w 40 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 33.8n 78.9w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.0n 77.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 39.0n 72.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 42.0n 62.0w 30 kt...extratropical

[HURAKAN]

I think we should see some development or at least some organization overnight, as usual.

[wx247]

Thanks for the update. It is doing a dance out there in the Gulf Stream.

[Dean4Storms]

She doesn't look all that great tonight, her tops are warming and her wig on the western periphery is bumping against some SW shear (note the flat look to her western UL outflow). On top of all that, she did up her eye make-up and her eye got bigger. A scary woman not unlike the wife when she's mad!!

ooopppss, this was meant for the Frances 115mph thread! Sorry!

[Derecho]

QS pass was lame; no barbs over 20 kts.