Wouldn't 949mb

[Lowpressure]

be more in line with 135mph? Not that it is that much difference. I have seen it where wind takes a while to catch up to dropping pressure, could this be the reverse or can erc do things a little different to hurricanes?

[btsgmdad]

I was wondering that too. However I think the consenus that this weakening is either temporary or they just hit it at a weak moment.

[dennis1x1]

yeah.....based on the pressure and flight level winds from recon, 145 is very doubtful....but the NHC will be slow in changing intensity due to PR consequences.

the eye structure appears to have nearly collapsed in the latest sat pics and the core of the system will take a while now to strengthen.....if its going to...

based on these latest events we may be lucky and be dealing with a cat 3 storm instead of a 4/5

[mf_dolphin]

This appears to just be an eyewall replacement in progress again. Please don't assume that this will weaken much and stay that way. It has plenty of fuel to fire up again.

[dennis1x1]

during the other erc's an outer eyewall was apparent....i dont see one here....am i missing it?

[chakalakasp]

Agreed -- but the NHS isn't going to "downgrade" anything on this storm until landfall, unless it dramtically decreases in strength. Peoples is stupid; if they hear that the windspeed has dropped 10mph, they assume "this thing's gonna be nuthin'!" instead of recognizing it as an eyewall cycle.

[dennis1x1]

agreed....from here on out the intensity advisories will be 5-10mph higher than actual.....

[Downdraft]

Eyewall replacement only. You could see the double eyewall taking shape earlier. This storm isn't weaking and the water and enviornment ahead are totally favorable for some further strengthening. A solid cat 4 at landfall.

[dennis1x1]

the ships model slowly weakens it from here on out....so it must not be seeing totally ideal conditions.

the ragged norther semi of the storm also points to something less than ideal going on.