5PM DISCUSSION

[weatherFrEaK]

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT BOTH MINIMUM
PRESSURE AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED STEADY. INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES AT 90 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS
OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND POUNDING GRAND BAHAMA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING
OR MODEL GUIDANCE...FRANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING
THAT FRANCES DOES NOT HESITATE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE CORE WILL
REACH THE COAST SOON AND CONTINUE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTARD ACROSS FLORIDA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS WHERE IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE.
SLOW MOVING FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH
OF THE CENTER WILL EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 26.9N 79.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 80.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 27.8N 81.9W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 60 KT...MOVING INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1800Z 35.7N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 85.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL