Ivan interest

[ilmc172pilot]

TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1700Z SUN SEP 05 2004

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 46.6W AT 05/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 46.6W AT 05/1700Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.6N 48.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.4N 55.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

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SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED SEP 8 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

11.5N 52.3W 50 2 X X 52 TAPA 171N 618W X X 2 15 17
12.4N 55.9W X 34 2 X 36 TKPK 173N 627W X X 1 16 17
13.3N 59.4W X 2 24 1 27 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 14 14
TNCC 122N 690W X X X 3 3 TISX 177N 648W X X X 16 16
SVMG 110N 640W X X 1 7 8 TIST 183N 650W X X X 14 14
TTPP 106N 614W X X 5 4 9 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 14 14
TTPT 112N 608W X X 10 4 14 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 6 6
TGPY 120N 618W X X 9 8 17 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 3 3
TBPB 131N 595W X 2 24 X 26 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 13 13
TVSV 131N 612W X X 17 6 23 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W X X 18 7 25 ST CROIX VI X X X 16 16
TFFF 146N 610W X X 16 9 25 ST THOMAS VI X X X 14 14
TDPR 153N 614W X X 11 12 23 SAN JUAN PR X X X 13 13
80400 157N 636W X X 1 20 21 PONCE PR X X X 14 14
TFFR 163N 615W X X 5 15 20

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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