11am Frances-65 mph winds

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 51

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 06, 2004

...Large circulation center of Frances expected to move over the
Florida Panhandle later today...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been downgraded to
Tropical Storm Warning from the Suwanee river to Anna Maria Island
and from west of Indian Pass to Destin.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the Suwanee river to
Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Suwanee river to
Anna Maria Island and from Indian Pass to Destin.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Anna
Maria Island has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida
East Coast of Florida and the Georgia coast has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the large circulation center of Tropical
Storm Frances was located near latitude 29.5 north...longitude
84.0 west or about 60 miles east-southeast of Apalachicola Florida.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. On this
track...the center of Frances should move over the Florida
Panhandle later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts. Only a
small increase in the winds could bring Frances to hurricane status
before landall

tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is
expected south of Cedar Key. Storm surge flooding of 5 to
10 feet above normal tide levels is expected along the northeast
Gulf Coast of Florida to the north of Cedar Key...especially to the
east of the track.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected over portions of the southeastern United States...
especially along and to the east of the path of Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of north and
central Florida and the Florida Panhandle...southeast Alabama and
southern Georgia.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...29.5 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 51

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 06, 2004

data from the reconnaissance plane...satellite images and radar
indicate that fracnes has not changed in structure and still
consists of a large circulation without an inner core. Initial
intensity is kept at 55 knots...but it will not take much for the
cyclone to increase 10 more knots and become a hurricane before
landfall. Therefore...a Hurricane Warning has been kept for a
portion of the Florida Panhandle.

The overall circulation is moving toward the northwest about 7
knots. This general motion is expected to continue until the large
center of circulation moves inland later today. Frances should
weaken after landfall and move toward the north and northeast until
absorbed a front in 96 hours.

Frances is a large cyclone and we must emphasize that the strongest
winds are not associated with the center.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/1500z 29.5n 84.0w 55 kt
12hr VT 07/0000z 30.5n 84.7w 35 kt...inland
24hr VT 07/1200z 32.0n 85.5w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 08/0000z 33.5n 85.5w 20 kt...inland
48hr VT 08/1200z 35.0n 85.0w 20 kt...inland
72hr VT 09/1200z 40.0n 81.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 10/1200z...absorbed

[Sanibel]

Frances is pretty much expended and has now merged with the CONUS divide feature. Pretty much a rain system from now on. She's done nothing but a straight decline since San Salvdore...