Jamaica appears to be spared - latest images have WSW wobble

[logybogy]

Someone out there is looking out for Jamaica.

[feederband]

im sure it still had some major impacts on the island .


matter of fact it still is.

[logybogy]

Yeah, but the Cat 1 and 2 winds they are getting will be nowhere near as devestating as Cat 5 winds they could have received.

[Jevo]

Thank God.... Ill let yuo Gomers deal with this storm ive had enough

[dennis1x1]

negril not out of the woods yet...any nw-nnw bobble during the eclipse period (what timing by the way) would give 7-mile beach a scare.

but all in all...what a crazy last few hours with the west turn at the LAST minute.

[Guest]

That sudden shift was incredible...I think I recall seeing one of the models that anticipated this...

[Tri-State_1925]

I believe Kingston is on the south part of the island. There is still going to be serious damage there from the looks of things.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

But the island as a whole would have been absolutely destroyed if this FIVE plowed over it. They would have spent the next year trying to recover.

[Guest]

I did see it in a model...

Notice the track of the AVN...

http://midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[btangy]

Concentric eyewalls may still bring some very strong winds to Kingston. It depends all on timing, though I think they were spared the absolute worst scenario by this wobble toward the W.

[dennis1x1]

yes..kingston probably received cat 2 winds so there will be damage....

as for the concentric eyewall......it looks like the outer eyewall probably got as close as 20-30 miles to kingston, the inner 30-40....both reached their closest points a couple of hours ago now...

as of the last sat clip...ivan would now have to bobble more north than the previous linear extrapolation (before the west turn) to make landfall on the west tip of jamaica.....if the west bobble continues through the eclipse jamaica is probably spared of any cat 4 winds.

[Pebbles]

EGGGGG *CRYS* we are in sat eclipse now..going nuts..wanna make sure it gonna miss them!

[sponger]

Spared? I doubt those on the nw end of the island will think so. I think its highly likey some western parts will receive Cat 4 wind speeds. I just got my power back today and will be lucky to finish laundry before round three!

Under the Gun in St Augustine!

[crazycajuncane]

I saw it and I was amazed by the WSW wobble.

Maybe a greater force..... I do believe in God.... may be helping to push Ivan's eye away from Jamacia.

[cloud_galaxy]

I saw it and I was amazed by the WSW wobble.

Maybe a greater force..... I do believe in God.... may be helping to push Ivan's eye away from Jamacia.

yes it looks like our prayers have been heard.

[dennis1x1]

its eery to read the bbc reporters blog from kingston at 1:00 gmt....stating....."its hard to believe the winds could get stronger"...


looking at the 1:00 sat pic and how far the eye was from kingston....he cant know how lucky they were with "the turn"..

wow.

[Anonymous]

I dunno about Spared with the northern eyewall passing directly over Jamaica... But the track is EXACTLY like Charley-maybe 50 miles to the left--but paralell... If I was in Ponta Gorda north to Cedar Key(since its about 50 miles left), I would be Nervous right about now....

[dennis1x1]

the northern eyewall never made landfall.....broken record i know...but appears some are still missing that fact..