794
WTNT32 KNHC 170829
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004
...KARL GETTING STRONGER...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A MOTION TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL HAS BEEN GETTING STRONGER DURING THE EVENING AND MAY
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
Tropical storm Karl Stronger!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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-
Matthew5
481
WTNT42 KNHC 170830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING
RATHER QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A
NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO. THERE
IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...THE SSTS AT
THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN
OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED. THE SUM OF THIS
INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PACKAGE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM
A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.5N 35.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 36.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 38.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.7N 42.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 46.3W 115 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W 115 KT
Wow is going ot be a cat4!!! This makes it maybe the fouth cat4 this season!!!
WTNT42 KNHC 170830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING
RATHER QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A
NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO. THERE
IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...THE SSTS AT
THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN
OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED. THE SUM OF THIS
INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PACKAGE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM
A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.5N 35.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 36.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 38.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.7N 42.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 46.3W 115 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W 115 KT
Wow is going ot be a cat4!!! This makes it maybe the fouth cat4 this season!!!
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 17, 2004
infrared satellite imagery indicates that Karl is strengthening
rather quickly. The system has a CDO feature near the center and a
nice band wrapping around from the west side into the CDO. There
is superb outflow toward the west and north. Also...the SSTs at
these latitudes reach their maximum values in mid-September.
Dvorak intensity estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB. An
objective ODT calculated a 77 kt wind speed. The sum of this
information is the basis for bringing the system up to 55 kts.
The initial motion is 275/14. Almost nothing has changed since the
last package. NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
a general west to west-northwestward motion around the southern
periphery of the strong subtropical ridge to the north for the next
48 hours. After that...a deep mid-latitude trough is forecast by
all of the models to dig southward...to varying degrees...and
weaken the ridge to the northwest of Karl. This allows the cyclone
to gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward. The
official track is essentially an update to the previous official
forecast...and remains close to the NHC model consensus.
The GFDL intensity forecast as well as ships want to make the system
a hurricane rather quickly and intensify it to a major hurricane in
about 72 hours. The intensity forecast is a blend of these two
with the ships forecast weighted in the early going...thus making
the system a hurricane in about 12 hours.
Forecaster Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/0900z 11.5n 35.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 17/1800z 11.8n 36.8w 65 kt
24hr VT 18/0600z 12.2n 38.8w 75 kt
36hr VT 18/1800z 12.8n 40.6w 85 kt
48hr VT 19/0600z 13.7n 42.2w 95 kt
72hr VT 20/0600z 16.2n 44.8w 105 kt
96hr VT 21/0600z 19.3n 46.3w 115 kt
120hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 47.0w 115 kt
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 17, 2004
infrared satellite imagery indicates that Karl is strengthening
rather quickly. The system has a CDO feature near the center and a
nice band wrapping around from the west side into the CDO. There
is superb outflow toward the west and north. Also...the SSTs at
these latitudes reach their maximum values in mid-September.
Dvorak intensity estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB. An
objective ODT calculated a 77 kt wind speed. The sum of this
information is the basis for bringing the system up to 55 kts.
The initial motion is 275/14. Almost nothing has changed since the
last package. NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
a general west to west-northwestward motion around the southern
periphery of the strong subtropical ridge to the north for the next
48 hours. After that...a deep mid-latitude trough is forecast by
all of the models to dig southward...to varying degrees...and
weaken the ridge to the northwest of Karl. This allows the cyclone
to gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward. The
official track is essentially an update to the previous official
forecast...and remains close to the NHC model consensus.
The GFDL intensity forecast as well as ships want to make the system
a hurricane rather quickly and intensify it to a major hurricane in
about 72 hours. The intensity forecast is a blend of these two
with the ships forecast weighted in the early going...thus making
the system a hurricane in about 12 hours.
Forecaster Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/0900z 11.5n 35.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 17/1800z 11.8n 36.8w 65 kt
24hr VT 18/0600z 12.2n 38.8w 75 kt
36hr VT 18/1800z 12.8n 40.6w 85 kt
48hr VT 19/0600z 13.7n 42.2w 95 kt
72hr VT 20/0600z 16.2n 44.8w 105 kt
96hr VT 21/0600z 19.3n 46.3w 115 kt
120hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 47.0w 115 kt
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
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