Excellent, Important AFD from Blacksburg, VA

[Scott_inVA]

not just b/c it's home, but they IMO are on how the FROPA (or lack thereof) will affect Jean post-landfall:

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE TRACK/TIMING OF JEANNE. MODELS STILL ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIMITED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS WEEKEND...MAKING IT TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AT BEST THANKS IN PART TO A STRONGER LOOKING HIGH OFF THE SHORES OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE MORE OF A LANDFALL TRACK OF JEANNE POSSIBLE THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK SUGGESTS...PERHAPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TREND THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS HAD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE CURRENT COMPROMISE FORECAST OF CANADIAN/GFS/NHC TRACK/PATH OF JEANNE IS STILL PRUDENT...AND WILL STICK TO CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR OUR AREA FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


Recognizing most think all I do is trop models...I do spend most of my time forecasting downstream of TCs and while not sold on the Canadian, I do agree w/Derek the GFS will NOT verify.

Also, south and west is the trend.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[rainstorm]

i agree. the front is stuck

[MWatkins]

It is hanging out over the midwest with no noticable advance to the west.

With a 60 mile wide outer wall...It almost looks looks like our govt is rerunning satellite imagery from frances.

MW