Affect of N component on JEANE'S track

[bobbisboy]

Now that the NHC has confirmed that JEANNE has a northerly compenent a bit ahead of schedule this may be critical as the further north JEANNE hits the coast the longer she will be over water as the coast of FL cuts back a full 3 degrees as one moves north. It remains to be seen now just how much of a northerly component JEANNE develops. NOONE should let their guard down as JEANNE is an intensifying category 3 storm. Good luck to all in the path.

[Rainband]

Our locals noted the jog north of west but said it is on the NHC's track.

[SouthernWx]

I'm not convinced it's a change of course....but rather the hurricane's eye pivoting (taking a WNW jog) around the northern tip of Great Abaco Island....I've seen it happen before; and in fact, expected it to happen....why I forecast landfall around latitude 26.8-27.0 north instead of 26.5° N. IMO Jeanne will shortly resume a westerly motion....passing over Grand Bahama Island, then westward across the Gulf Stream into Palm Beach and Martin counties.

[Innotech]

indeed it is just temporary jogs. Keep in mind the storm is riding the periphery of a ridge. Ridges and troughs are not straight lines, they have kinks, bends, and weaknesses that sway a hurricane. Also factor in land interaction on Abaco and motion is still overall west.

[miamijaaz]

Agreed. Latest Miami radar loop confirms a return to the due west movement -- for the moment at least.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

[WEATHER53]

What upper level winds are going to compell this storm 75 miles inland and then an abrupt turn to the north. I suggest none. Look for this storm to "sense" the land mass friction and heat loss and begin the self preserving turn north when the eye is about 50+ miles offshore.