New Orleans NWS isn't jumping on the Carribean Wave just yet

[skysummit]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPING TO FIRE OFF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL EAST
TODAY ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE RETURN OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON PAST POOR PERFORMANCE WILL

DISCOUNT NAM MODELS FORECAST OF A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
WILL GO WITH A MORE LIKELY GFS SCENARIO OF BRINGING IN A TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THE BERMUNDA HIGH WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

[skysummit]

So isn't Mobile......

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY DUE TO HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. A LOWER COVERAGE THOUGH IS
ANTICIPATED AS WE START TO SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UKMET...NAM...GFS SHOW A
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...AN EASTERLY WAVE RIDES WEST
NORTHWEST OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE FROM THIS
FEATURE...LOOKS TO SHEAR OFF AND BECOME STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF DUE TO EXPANSION OF THE EAST GULF UPPER
RIDGE. WITH THIS FEATURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES LOOK TO
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE
APPROACHING THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A DIURNAL
TYPE SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED.
HOT AND HUMID DAYS/MUGGY NIGHTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
/10

[cajungal]

David Bernard said we may have a tropical storm off the Louisiana coast by Wednesday. Historically speaking, Louisiana has never, ever had a named storm in July. In all the years of record keeping. So, if anything happens, it will be the first. I did not expect the season to get so active so fast. I thought we would have at least to August to get things cranking.

[Derek Ortt]

Cajun Gal


Not true at all

Danny made first landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi moving from west to east in mid July