NHC and Wind Intensity Predictions

[Pebbles]

Would like to start a thread discussing the pros and cons of wind intensity predictions. As many of you know last year the wind predictions were off quite a bit at times ...specially further out in time, while the models continue to improve in landfall predictions.

Thoughts on why exactly this aspect of storm prediction tends to cause some trouble for models and thus the NHC? Do you see this aspect of storm prediction improving in the near future? How reliable do you feel the wind prediction tables are?

I find this chart of Dennis extremely interesting. Don't recall ever seeing such numbers at the 72 hour mark from a tropical storm. Definite attention getter... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... html?table

[seahawkjd]

They've had bigger numbers before from a tropical storm. What was the one that was supposed to explode in the GOM into a nightmare storm and then just kind of fizzled out after scaring everyone half to death?

[gkrangers]

Usually in the discussions, they state "we have little to no skill in forecasting intensity in the long term"...we simply just don't know how.

[Pebbles]

Usually in the discussions, they state "we have little to no skill in forecasting intensity in the long term"...we simply just don't know how.

Exactly... so any ideas on what causes such problems with long term intensity forecasting? Has there been any thoughts on what needs to be researched more to bring more understanding of which dynamics affect intensity. Anyone have any hunches or trains of thoughts they would like researched that could bring clarity to this aspect?

This is meant to be a thinking/discussion type thread where totally unprovable idea's are shared.