Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

LaBreeze · #101 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:57 pm

Let's hope it brings rain this way.

#102 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:06 pm

The magic 8-Ball say,

"

"

Sorry I don't control the Magic 8-Ball, I can only ask it a question.

Question: Will the trough in the Gulf turn into a tropical system?

http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi

#103 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:12 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

#104 Postby **lonelymike** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:13 pm

Probably a big rainmaker for LA and it gives WX57 and Derek something to do.

SapphireSea · #105 Postby **SapphireSea** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:06 pm

Looks like it will indeed be a rain-maker. I believe this one has an OK chance at development given all the parameters. I don't know to what extent, all depending on how much time it has before land interaction becomes a factor.

Ed Mahmoud · #106 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:33 pm

Cloud tops are warming, as 12Z GFS prediction of poof-ation seems well underway for blob watch system in North central GOMEX.

Lawn watering without interruption, 2 to 3 times weekly, seems to be in the cars for Southeast Texas for probably two weeks or more to come.

Last week's inch of rain from a distant Dolly already wiped by mid to upper 90s temps (35ºC), full sun, and lower than normal dewpoints.

12Z GFS shows no appreciable rain in HOU before August 11th, (ditto the 18Z GFS, BTW). By appreciable, I mean anything over a tenth in a day, which ain't that appreciable. And if it takes almost two weeks for the GFS to drop a total of about a half an inch of precip, my waterbill is in trouble.

#107 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:33 pm

>>Looks like it will indeed be a rain-maker.

Maybe so. It doesn't look that involved though and maybe something to bring in some cloudiness and enhance the rainfall chances. I was over in Eunice this weekend, and it was easily 100+ on Sunday & the hottest day of the year for me so far. I got a sunburn from water reflecting off a swimming pool, and I have medium skin to begin with.

Steve

TexWx · #108 Postby **TexWx** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:44 pm

blobwatch cancel

#109 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:05 pm

I would not be surprised if this area flared up again later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

#110 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:35 pm

Looks to be poofing tonight, maybe tomorrow??!! Regardless, it should be a rain maker.

Sanibel · #111 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:56 pm

See if it refires.

#112 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:36 pm

Looks like a weak circulation south of the mouth of the Mississippi on shortwave IR tonight. Not much convection but it will be a good idea to watch this area as it is close to land (me).......MGC

Sabanic · #113 Postby **Sabanic** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:27 am

Looks like it has flared back up somewhat this morning.

#114 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:33 am

Sabanic wrote:Looks like it has flared back up somewhat this morning.

And it appears to be moving inland into southeast Louisiana.

#115 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:41 am

MGC wrote:Looks like a weak circulation south of the mouth of the Mississippi on shortwave IR tonight. Not much convection but it will be a good idea to watch this area as it is close to land (me).......MGC

Yes MGC very tight little mid level spin, does deserve a close eye but i think it's suppose to move inland shortly.
My truck read 104 degrees for a short time yesterday in the middle of New Orleans, so clouds and some rain sounds sweet to me.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

stevetampa33614 · #116 Postby **stevetampa33614** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:45 am

The flare up is moving inland. But the core remains offshore. Really dont now what to think. Looks like the floater was canceled.

#117 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:11 am

stevetampa33614 wrote:The flare up is moving inland. But the core remains offshore. Really dont now what to think. Looks like the floater was canceled.

That's what I'm seeing too.

stevetampa33614 · #118 Postby **stevetampa33614** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:57 am

Interesting, One of the bouys is picking up 120kt winds blow SE all day.

edit: Bouy is broke they just took it offline :/. Thats a relief.

#119 Postby **Pearl River** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:22 am

Were getting ready to get a good frog strangler here at the UNO Technology Center.

#120 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:25 am

There is definitely a spin south of the SE LA. coastline....now whether or not
it's at the surface is another story. I don't think it's (the spin) moving much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Re: Gulf of Mexico area

Who is online